{"source":"manifold","id":"7XJogo89DyViRUQKaBFn","ticker":null,"slug":"the-fda-will-approve-an-ai-develope","title":"The FDA will approve an AI developed cure before the end of the decade (<2030) for a previously incurable major illness.","description":"The drug company will credit key steps of the discovery or steps in the treatment process to AI/ML techniques. The treatment must be approved before 2030 by the FDA for a condition afflicting at least 1 million people at the time, which had no previous cure, rarely goes into remission, and without treatment either significantly shortens lifespan or is considered extremely debilitating. Treatments may exist at the time, but this will be a complete cure with an efficacy of >50%. The treatment may need to be repeated if the illness recurs, but isn't needed on a continuing basis.\n\n\nExamples (not limited to):\n\nAn incurable virus, bacterium, or parasite.\n\nDegenerative illnesses such as Alzheimer's, diabetes, or cardiovascular.\n\nPhysical such as paralysis, amputation, and many types of blindness or deafness.\n\nMental health disorders such as autism, bipolar disorder, and schizophrenia.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F5ZcNNbH20U.png?alt=media&token=c75dd190-a469-41c0-aeac-8b4a736cf599","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-12-21T17:45:49.386000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10855.618524457985,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.41603088378906,"liquidity":1880.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.263886,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"The FDA will approve an AI developed cure before the end of the decade (<2030) for a previously incurable major illness.","top_outcome_probability":0.263886,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RealityQuotient/the-fda-will-approve-an-ai-develope","chart_24h":[0.263886,0.263886],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"7XJogo89DyViRUQKaBFn","event_id":"7XJogo89DyViRUQKaBFn","slug":"the-fda-will-approve-an-ai-develope","question":"The FDA will approve an AI developed cure before the end of the decade (<2030) for a previously incurable major illness.","group_item_title":null,"description":"The drug company will credit key steps of the discovery or steps in the treatment process to AI/ML techniques. The treatment must be approved before 2030 by the FDA for a condition afflicting at least 1 million people at the time, which had no previous cure, rarely goes into remission, and without treatment either significantly shortens lifespan or is considered extremely debilitating. Treatments may exist at the time, but this will be a complete cure with an efficacy of >50%. The treatment may need to be repeated if the illness recurs, but isn't needed on a continuing basis.\n\n\nExamples (not limited to):\n\nAn incurable virus, bacterium, or parasite.\n\nDegenerative illnesses such as Alzheimer's, diabetes, or cardiovascular.\n\nPhysical such as paralysis, amputation, and many types of blindness or deafness.\n\nMental health disorders such as autism, bipolar disorder, and schizophrenia.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F5ZcNNbH20U.png?alt=media&token=c75dd190-a469-41c0-aeac-8b4a736cf599","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.263886,0.736114],"probability":0.263886,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-12-21T17:45:49.386000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10855.618524457985,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.41603088378906,"liquidity":1880.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Health"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:43.497510Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RealityQuotient/the-fda-will-approve-an-ai-develope","event_title":"The FDA will approve an AI developed cure before the end of the decade (<2030) for a previously incurable major illness.","chart_24h":[0.263886,0.263886]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/7XJogo89DyViRUQKaBFn","as_of":"2026-06-10T10:30:04.753991Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"The FDA will approve an AI developed cure before the end of the decade (<2030) for a previously incurable major illness.\" — top market at 26% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}