{"source":"manifold","id":"8HjPKfhd5OdDxxhA6Ezi","ticker":null,"slug":"will-5-or-less-adults-smoke-cigaret","title":"Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?","description":"This market will resolve yes if a large, nationally representative survey in England finds that 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes by the end of 2030. This includes surveys released after this date, but the data covers 2030 or earlier. I will accept rounded figures to the nearest 0.1% (e.g. the true figure could be 5.04% and this market would still resolve yes).  \n\nThe UK government has set a target for England to be 'smokefree' by 2030 - achieved when adult smoking prevalence is 5% or less.  \n\nThe latest figures from the Office of National Statistics suggest that in 2021, 13% of adults in England smoked, down from 13.8% the year before and the lowest rate ever recorded. \n\nA recent review (the 'Khan review') said that “without further action, England will miss the smokefree 2030 target by at least 7 years”, and made 15 recommendations to help the government achieve its smokefree ambitions. \n\nSince then, the UK government has announced a scheme to provide 1 million smokers with free e-cigarette starter packs to help them quit (known as 'swap to stop'), as well as financial incentives to encourage pregnant women to stop smoking. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/smokers-urged-to-swap-cigarettes-for-vapes-in-world-first-scheme","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-06-17T06:08:18.269000Z","end_date":"2031-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8672.91847239955,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":30.858530044555664,"liquidity":2025.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.124274,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.124274,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-14T18:16:49.313562Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-14T18:16:49.313562Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bdog/will-5-or-less-adults-smoke-cigaret","chart_24h":[0.124274,0.124274],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"8HjPKfhd5OdDxxhA6Ezi","event_id":"8HjPKfhd5OdDxxhA6Ezi","slug":"will-5-or-less-adults-smoke-cigaret","question":"Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve yes if a large, nationally representative survey in England finds that 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes by the end of 2030. This includes surveys released after this date, but the data covers 2030 or earlier. I will accept rounded figures to the nearest 0.1% (e.g. the true figure could be 5.04% and this market would still resolve yes).  \n\nThe UK government has set a target for England to be 'smokefree' by 2030 - achieved when adult smoking prevalence is 5% or less.  \n\nThe latest figures from the Office of National Statistics suggest that in 2021, 13% of adults in England smoked, down from 13.8% the year before and the lowest rate ever recorded. \n\nA recent review (the 'Khan review') said that “without further action, England will miss the smokefree 2030 target by at least 7 years”, and made 15 recommendations to help the government achieve its smokefree ambitions. \n\nSince then, the UK government has announced a scheme to provide 1 million smokers with free e-cigarette starter packs to help them quit (known as 'swap to stop'), as well as financial incentives to encourage pregnant women to stop smoking. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/smokers-urged-to-swap-cigarettes-for-vapes-in-world-first-scheme","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.124274,0.875726],"probability":0.124274,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-06-17T06:08:18.269000Z","end_date":"2031-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8672.91847239955,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":30.858530044555664,"liquidity":2025.0,"categories":["Health"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-06-19T23:53:14.365712Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-14T18:14:38.146271Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bdog/will-5-or-less-adults-smoke-cigaret","event_title":"Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?","chart_24h":[0.124274,0.124274]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/8HjPKfhd5OdDxxhA6Ezi","as_of":"2026-06-20T15:05:06.550337Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?\" — top market at 12% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}