{"source":"manifold","id":"8PQlEAddOS","ticker":"8PQlEAddOS","slug":"which-laptop-will-i-buy","title":"[10000 mana bounty] Which laptop will I buy?","description":"I plan on buying a new laptop. I'm looking for something relatively light (<3.5 lbs but heavier is fine if it meets other criteria), preferably >=32gb ram, and >=512gb disk. A smaller screen would be good, maybe 14\" but I'm flexible on that. I don't need a really big gpu bc I'd mainly use the laptop as a terminal and use modal or something else online/remote for compute. I don't need really good gaming capability, though it's a plus. \n\nI always have like 200 tabs and 20 windows open, so I would like a laptop that can handle that. \n\nIn the past I used a thinkpad x1 carbon and really liked it (this was a temporary company one so I don't have it anymore). I also used a legion 5 pro which was good but kind of bulky. I'd prefer windows but also want to set up a linux or unix vm on it. Also, I'm a student living in the US, so if there's a student discount there or any other discount you can find, that's greatly preferred. I'm willing to spend a lot of money if the laptop can last a long time or doesn't depreciate immediately. \n\nMaybe my critical flicker fusion frequency is very low, or I just have a really bad reaction time, but I don't see much of a difference beyond like ~120 fps. I used a laptop with 240fps previously (the legion 5 pro) and don't notice a difference between that and 60fps. \n\nI would greatly prefer at least 2 usb-c ports and a usb-a port because I used wired mouse, earbuds, etc., but if it is a choice between small form factor and more ports, I will choose the small form factor.\n\nI am not a big fan of osx, I don't use the apple ecosystem for other products. I prefer windows/linux and want to set up a linux vm in virtualbox, probably ubuntu.\n\nIf you add an option and I pick it, I will managram 3500 mana to the person who suggests the laptop I decide to buy and 6500 more mana if I like it (I won't judge it harshly). I'll also send mana if you find a really good deal.\n\nChoices will count as distinct from each other if they are listed as different models. If they only differ in some customizable component like e.g. one laptop has 512gb disk and the other has 1tb disk, they count as the same choice and the duplicate will be n/a. Obviously this is somewhat subjective so lmk if there is any ambiguity. \n\nFeel free to ask any questions or try to convince me one option is better than another","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-02T21:19:43.749000Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T22:15:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7894.053193814385,"volume_24hr":7842.015117666786,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":54.45600891113281,"normalized_volume":29.674158096313477,"liquidity":10175.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["ai","technology-default","bounty-markets"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Framework Laptop 13 Pro","top_outcome_probability":0.237662,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.06614,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":64.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-05T19:43:54.202047Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T19:43:54.202047Z","added_at":"2026-10-05T16:50:20.894220Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/spiderduckpig/which-laptop-will-i-buy","chart_24h":[6027.223120300739,6434.2231203007395,7770.015117666786,7842.015117666786],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"Izpt9UcAth","event_id":"8PQlEAddOS","slug":null,"question":"Framework Laptop 13 Pro","group_item_title":"Framework Laptop 13 Pro","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.237662,0.762338],"probability":0.237662,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-05T08:13:43.220000Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T22:15:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":773.7785936911189,"volume_24hr":214.0,"prob_24h_change":0.06614,"volume_24h_change":64.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":19.53289222717285,"normalized_volume":16.307483673095703,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-05T20:08:54.378856Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T20:08:51.754303Z","added_at":"2026-10-05T16:50:21.192749Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/spiderduckpig/which-laptop-will-i-buy","event_title":"[10000 mana bounty] Which laptop will I buy?","chart_24h":[0.171522,0.211333,0.244245,0.237662]},{"source":"manifold","id":"LSQg6sIuQg","event_id":"8PQlEAddOS","slug":null,"question":"Other","group_item_title":"Other","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.166209,0.833791],"probability":0.166209,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-02T21:19:43.749000Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T22:15:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1119.8586491520282,"volume_24hr":110.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0009220000000000061,"volume_24h_change":60.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":15.020001411437988,"normalized_volume":18.168128967285156,"liquidity":946.9244564382655,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-05T20:08:54.378856Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T20:08:51.754303Z","added_at":"2026-10-05T16:50:21.192749Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/spiderduckpig/which-laptop-will-i-buy","event_title":"[10000 mana bounty] Which laptop will I buy?","chart_24h":[0.165287,0.166326,0.169814,0.166209]},{"source":"manifold","id":"600QgsOQcc","event_id":"8PQlEAddOS","slug":null,"question":"Macbook Pro","group_item_title":"Macbook Pro","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.118218,0.881782],"probability":0.118218,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-05T16:27:19.775000Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T22:15:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1357.595230571914,"volume_24hr":1257.595230571914,"prob_24h_change":-0.06006099999999999,"volume_24h_change":1132.595230571914,"normalized_vol_24hr":34.50147247314453,"normalized_volume":19.177156448364258,"liquidity":946.9244564382655,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-05T20:08:54.378856Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T20:08:51.754303Z","added_at":"2026-10-05T16:50:21.192749Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/spiderduckpig/which-laptop-will-i-buy","event_title":"[10000 mana bounty] Which laptop will I buy?","chart_24h":[0.178279,0.172952,0.118048,0.118218]},{"source":"manifold","id":"p6QyCEp56N","event_id":"8PQlEAddOS","slug":null,"question":"Asus ROG Flow x13","group_item_title":"Asus ROG Flow x13","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.099135,0.900865],"probability":0.099135,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-05T02:24:23.814000Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T22:15:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1926.2328159436902,"volume_24hr":60.0,"prob_24h_change":0.012441000000000008,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.444138526916504,"normalized_volume":21.08102798461914,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-05T20:08:54.378856Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T19:43:54.475570Z","added_at":"2026-10-05T16:50:21.192749Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/spiderduckpig/which-laptop-will-i-buy","event_title":"[10000 mana bounty] Which laptop will I buy?","chart_24h":[0.086694,0.078526,0.080166,0.099135]},{"source":"manifold","id":"nChLungyyO","event_id":"8PQlEAddOS","slug":null,"question":"Lenovo Thinkpad X1 Carbon Gen 13 Aura Edition","group_item_title":"Lenovo Thinkpad X1 Carbon Gen 13 Aura Edition","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.068745,0.931255],"probability":0.068745,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-02T21:19:43.749000Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T22:15:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":705.3578282964806,"volume_24hr":93.00000000000114,"prob_24h_change":0.018811,"volume_24h_change":11.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":13.978373527526855,"normalized_volume":15.85736083984375,"liquidity":50.00000000000001,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-05T20:08:54.378856Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T20:08:51.754303Z","added_at":"2026-10-05T16:50:21.192749Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/spiderduckpig/which-laptop-will-i-buy","event_title":"[10000 mana bounty] Which laptop will I buy?","chart_24h":[0.049934,0.063597,0.070884,0.068745]},{"source":"manifold","id":"SgC2nlC8Ry","event_id":"8PQlEAddOS","slug":null,"question":"HP EliteBook X G1i 14\"","group_item_title":"HP EliteBook X G1i 14\"","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.068215,0.931785],"probability":0.068215,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-05T02:22:00.902000Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T22:15:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":61.029151049900506,"volume_24hr":50.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.010093000000000005,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":10.468954086303711,"normalized_volume":6.277738571166992,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-05T20:08:54.378856Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T20:08:51.754303Z","added_at":"2026-10-05T16:50:21.192749Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/spiderduckpig/which-laptop-will-i-buy","event_title":"[10000 mana bounty] Which laptop will I buy?","chart_24h":[0.078308,0.068266,0.069925,0.068215]},{"source":"manifold","id":"cEQlQucZ96","event_id":"8PQlEAddOS","slug":null,"question":"Framework Laptop 16","group_item_title":"Framework Laptop 16","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.034828,0.965172],"probability":0.034828,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T13:50:35.698000Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T22:15:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1248.8513161631588,"volume_24hr":30.196766794132373,"prob_24h_change":-0.006727000000000004,"volume_24h_change":10.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.01513957977295,"normalized_volume":18.736183166503906,"liquidity":25.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-05T20:08:54.378856Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T20:08:51.754303Z","added_at":"2026-10-05T16:50:21.192749Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/spiderduckpig/which-laptop-will-i-buy","event_title":"[10000 mana bounty] Which laptop will I buy?","chart_24h":[0.041555,0.03188,0.035505,0.034828]},{"source":"manifold","id":"8d9P6nE5hg","event_id":"8PQlEAddOS","slug":null,"question":"Dell XPS 13, 14, & 16","group_item_title":"Dell XPS 13, 14, & 16","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.142378,0.857622],"probability":0.142378,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-05T16:26:55.256000Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T22:15:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.015062999999999993,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-05T19:43:54.475570Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T19:43:54.475570Z","added_at":"2026-10-05T16:50:21.192749Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/spiderduckpig/which-laptop-will-i-buy","event_title":"[10000 mana bounty] Which laptop will I buy?","chart_24h":[0.157441,0.142472,0.145492,0.142378]},{"source":"manifold","id":"gnCzuII08A","event_id":"8PQlEAddOS","slug":null,"question":"ASUS Zenbook 14 OLED (UM3406GA)","group_item_title":"ASUS Zenbook 14 OLED (UM3406GA)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.05178,0.94822],"probability":0.05178,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-04T05:03:57.454000Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T22:15:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":60.70491253698434,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.005062999999999998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":6.261806964874268,"liquidity":25.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-05T19:43:54.475570Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T19:43:54.475570Z","added_at":"2026-10-05T16:50:21.192749Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/spiderduckpig/which-laptop-will-i-buy","event_title":"[10000 mana bounty] Which laptop will I buy?","chart_24h":[0.056843,0.051812,0.052824,0.05178]},{"source":"manifold","id":"IzpA6PU0Rl","event_id":"8PQlEAddOS","slug":null,"question":"Dell 16 Plus Laptop","group_item_title":"Dell 16 Plus Laptop","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.012829,0.987171],"probability":0.012829,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-02T22:33:45.795000Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T22:15:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":640.6446964091085,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.0013069999999999991,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":15.396231651306152,"liquidity":25.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-05T19:43:54.475570Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T19:43:54.475570Z","added_at":"2026-10-05T16:50:21.192749Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/spiderduckpig/which-laptop-will-i-buy","event_title":"[10000 mana bounty] Which laptop will I buy?","chart_24h":[0.014136,0.012837,0.013097,0.012829]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/8PQlEAddOS","as_of":"2026-10-05T20:13:31.395589Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"[10000 mana bounty] Which laptop will I buy?\" — top market at 12% probability across 10 outcomes","source_url":null}}