{"source":"manifold","id":"8QRh29ROdE","ticker":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":"outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","description":"[image][image]If the dispute is clearly over and nothing further is happening, remaining options resolve early. Unless stated otherwise, remaining open options resolves on July 1st. \n\nSee also:\n\n@/Bayesian/will-anthropic-give-the-military-un \n\n@/2b3o4o/what-will-happen-between-anthropic \n\n@/bens/will-the-us-department-of-defense-c ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-24T20:03:59.908000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":364165.9773473323,"volume_24hr":350.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":27.18293571472168,"normalized_volume":61.55449295043945,"liquidity":34900.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"tags":["claude","anthropic","pentagon","us-politics","ai"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Anthropic files a lawsuit against the federal government","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:09:24.216735Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T03:09:24.216735Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","chart_24h":[0.0,350.0],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"5tRq9gygR9","event_id":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":null,"question":"Anthropic's contract is publicly available","group_item_title":"Anthropic's contract is publicly available","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.116778,0.883222],"probability":0.116778,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-28T21:59:43.968000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3297.484518113887,"volume_24hr":100.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.007682999999999995,"volume_24h_change":100.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.855852127075195,"normalized_volume":24.6363468170166,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:55:17.244539Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:53:55.520585Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","event_title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","chart_24h":[0.124461,0.124461,0.124461,0.124461,0.124461,0.124461,0.124461,0.124461,0.124461,0.124461,0.116778,0.116778,0.116778,0.116778,0.116778,0.116778,0.116778,0.116778,0.116778,0.116778,0.116778,0.116778,0.116778,0.116778,0.116778,0.116778,0.116778,0.116778,0.116778]},{"source":"manifold","id":"92dC20Lnc6","event_id":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":null,"question":"OpenAI's new contract is publicly available","group_item_title":"OpenAI's new contract is publicly available","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.083413,0.916587],"probability":0.083413,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-28T21:59:54.331000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4187.049965893399,"volume_24hr":249.99999999999955,"prob_24h_change":-0.012447,"volume_24h_change":249.99999999999955,"normalized_vol_24hr":24.161304473876953,"normalized_volume":26.10999298095703,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:55:17.244539Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:53:55.520585Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","event_title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","chart_24h":[0.09586,0.09586,0.09586,0.09586,0.09586,0.09586,0.09586,0.09586,0.09586,0.09586,0.083413,0.083413,0.083413,0.083413,0.083413,0.083413,0.083413,0.083413,0.083413,0.083413,0.083413,0.083413,0.083413,0.083413,0.083413,0.083413,0.083413,0.083413,0.083413]},{"source":"manifold","id":"92IOucRPRR","event_id":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":null,"question":"Anthropic files a lawsuit against the federal government","group_item_title":"Anthropic files a lawsuit against the federal government","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-25T18:17:27.865000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":38288.89334344193,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":41.804466247558594,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:55:19.458107Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:53:55.520585Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","event_title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"CQpNhlEhZ8","event_id":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":null,"question":"The Pentagon declares Anthropic a \"supply chain risk\"","group_item_title":"The Pentagon declares Anthropic a \"supply chain risk\"","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-24T20:03:59.908000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":51695.19238571543,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":44.21670913696289,"liquidity":250.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:55:19.458107Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:53:55.520585Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","event_title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"NE6uUpqtCP","event_id":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":null,"question":"The Pentagon cuts ties with Anthropic","group_item_title":"The Pentagon cuts ties with Anthropic","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-24T20:03:59.908000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":24222.70852999813,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.25566864013672,"liquidity":250.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:55:19.458107Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:53:55.520585Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","event_title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"UtQECgI686","event_id":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":null,"question":"A judge grants an injunction against the Department of War","group_item_title":"A judge grants an injunction against the Department of War","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-28T02:02:56.147000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6443.149996894589,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.877975463867188,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:55:19.458107Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:53:55.520585Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","event_title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"py5A2s0nq8","event_id":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":null,"question":"An injunction is granted against the supply chain risk designation","group_item_title":"An injunction is granted against the supply chain risk designation","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-01T11:42:45.222000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5269.625197862389,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":27.56941795349121,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:55:19.458107Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:53:55.520585Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","event_title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"0uACU5906N","event_id":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":null,"question":"The Department of War signs a deal to use OpenAI models instead ","group_item_title":"The Department of War signs a deal to use OpenAI models instead ","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.891046,0.108954],"probability":0.891046,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-28T00:30:38.828000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21285.85131027258,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":37.28240203857422,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:55:19.458107Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:53:55.520585Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","event_title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","chart_24h":[0.891046,0.891046,0.891046,0.891046,0.891046,0.891046,0.891046,0.891046,0.891046,0.891046,0.891046,0.891046,0.891046,0.891046,0.891046,0.891046,0.891046,0.891046,0.891046,0.891046,0.891046,0.891046,0.891046,0.891046,0.891046,0.891046,0.891046,0.891046,0.891046]},{"source":"manifold","id":"tuLR2UAsgh","event_id":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":null,"question":"OpenAI signs a contract substantially weaker than Anthropic's requirements","group_item_title":"OpenAI signs a contract substantially weaker than Anthropic's requirements","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.832633,0.167367],"probability":0.832633,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-28T17:47:33.513000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6504.004781025497,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.93990135192871,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:55:19.458107Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:53:55.520585Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","event_title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","chart_24h":[0.832633,0.832633,0.832633,0.832633,0.832633,0.832633,0.832633,0.832633,0.832633,0.832633,0.832633,0.832633,0.832633,0.832633,0.832633,0.832633,0.832633,0.832633,0.832633,0.832633,0.832633,0.832633,0.832633,0.832633,0.832633,0.832633,0.832633,0.832633,0.832633]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ZtlNznLPlP","event_id":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":null,"question":"Anthropic's \"supply chain risk\" designation removed before 2027","group_item_title":"Anthropic's \"supply chain risk\" designation removed before 2027","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.69,0.31],"probability":0.69,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-28T00:03:48.354000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1259.043604339084,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":19.131032943725586,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:55:19.458107Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:53:55.520585Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","event_title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","chart_24h":[0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69]},{"source":"manifold","id":"Qyp0OlzCpp","event_id":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":null,"question":"The supply chain risk designation is officially issued","group_item_title":"The supply chain risk designation is officially issued","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.676893,0.323107],"probability":0.676893,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T01:55:14.690000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21135.9992336563,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":37.22956466674805,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:55:19.458107Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:53:55.520585Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","event_title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","chart_24h":[0.676893,0.676893,0.676893,0.676893,0.676893,0.676893,0.676893,0.676893,0.676893,0.676893,0.676893,0.676893,0.676893,0.676893,0.676893,0.676893,0.676893,0.676893,0.676893,0.676893,0.676893,0.676893,0.676893,0.676893,0.676893,0.676893,0.676893,0.676893,0.676893]},{"source":"manifold","id":"qg0CSncySh","event_id":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":null,"question":"An injunction is granted against the supply chain risk designation And survives unblocked by other courts for 6 months","group_item_title":"An injunction is granted against the supply chain risk designation And survives unblocked by other courts for 6 months","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.674778,0.325222],"probability":0.674778,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-01T11:43:02.050000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1838.5635099384745,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":21.21277618408203,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:55:19.458107Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:53:55.520585Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","event_title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","chart_24h":[0.674778,0.674778,0.674778,0.674778,0.674778,0.674778,0.674778,0.674778,0.674778,0.674778,0.674778,0.674778,0.674778,0.674778,0.674778,0.674778,0.674778,0.674778,0.674778,0.674778,0.674778,0.674778,0.674778,0.674778,0.674778,0.674778,0.674778,0.674778,0.674778]},{"source":"manifold","id":"nU99E2Uusu","event_id":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":null,"question":"Anthropic's \"supply chain risk\" designation removed before July","group_item_title":"Anthropic's \"supply chain risk\" designation removed before July","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.58,0.42],"probability":0.58,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-28T00:03:38.008000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1222.3445754249665,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":18.972942352294922,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:55:19.458107Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:53:55.520585Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","event_title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","chart_24h":[0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58]},{"source":"manifold","id":"EI6pALppP2","event_id":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":null,"question":"The government offers the same terms to Anthropic as to OpenAI","group_item_title":"The government offers the same terms to Anthropic as to OpenAI","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.252242,0.747758],"probability":0.252242,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-28T21:52:30.931000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1753.0742907538777,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":20.945056915283203,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:55:19.458107Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:53:55.520585Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","event_title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","chart_24h":[0.252242,0.252242,0.252242,0.252242,0.252242,0.252242,0.252242,0.252242,0.252242,0.252242,0.252242,0.252242,0.252242,0.252242,0.252242,0.252242,0.252242,0.252242,0.252242,0.252242,0.252242,0.252242,0.252242,0.252242,0.252242,0.252242,0.252242,0.252242,0.252242]},{"source":"manifold","id":"IhtUQO2nqy","event_id":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":null,"question":"Resignation letter signed by at least 5 OpenAI employees","group_item_title":"Resignation letter signed by at least 5 OpenAI employees","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.185931,0.814069],"probability":0.185931,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-28T04:20:03.589000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9522.43058168495,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-416.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.507200241088867,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:55:19.458107Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:53:55.520585Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","event_title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","chart_24h":[0.185931,0.185931,0.185931,0.185931,0.185931,0.185931,0.185931,0.185931,0.185931,0.185931,0.185931,0.185931,0.185931,0.185931,0.185931,0.185931,0.185931,0.185931,0.185931,0.185931,0.185931,0.185931,0.185931,0.185931,0.185931,0.185931,0.185931,0.185931,0.185931]},{"source":"manifold","id":"lLuLQpq9At","event_id":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":null,"question":"US company with >100B total valuation cancels some Pentagon contract and uses Anthropic supply chain risk designation as stated justification","group_item_title":"US company with >100B total valuation cancels some Pentagon contract and uses Anthropic supply chain risk designation as stated justification","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.10271,0.89729],"probability":0.10271,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-28T00:58:54.334000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4820.9153531002075,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-100.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":26.99990463256836,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:55:19.458107Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:53:55.520585Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","event_title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","chart_24h":[0.10271,0.10271,0.10271,0.10271,0.10271,0.10271,0.10271,0.10271,0.10271,0.10271,0.10271,0.10271,0.10271,0.10271,0.10271,0.10271,0.10271,0.10271,0.10271,0.10271,0.10271,0.10271,0.10271,0.10271,0.10271,0.10271,0.10271,0.10271,0.10271]},{"source":"manifold","id":"9Q8y5sNdtc","event_id":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":null,"question":"The Pentagon invokes the Defense Production Act","group_item_title":"The Pentagon invokes the Defense Production Act","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.067124,0.932876],"probability":0.067124,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-24T20:03:59.908000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":17137.606915258486,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":35.67826461791992,"liquidity":250.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:55:19.458107Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:53:55.520585Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","event_title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","chart_24h":[0.067124,0.067124,0.067124,0.067124,0.067124,0.067124,0.067124,0.067124,0.067124,0.067124,0.067124,0.067124,0.067124,0.067124,0.067124,0.067124,0.067124,0.067124,0.067124,0.067124,0.067124,0.067124,0.067124,0.067124,0.067124,0.067124,0.067124,0.067124,0.067124]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ZPO09u9QlU","event_id":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":null,"question":"Anthropic gives the government unfettered access of their own accord (they \"cave in\")","group_item_title":"Anthropic gives the government unfettered access of their own accord (they \"cave in\")","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.059907,0.940093],"probability":0.059907,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-27T01:41:51.206000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14333.373790770302,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.382484436035156,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:55:19.458107Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:53:55.520585Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","event_title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","chart_24h":[0.059907,0.059907,0.059907,0.059907,0.059907,0.059907,0.059907,0.059907,0.059907,0.059907,0.059907,0.059907,0.059907,0.059907,0.059907,0.059907,0.059907,0.059907,0.059907,0.059907,0.059907,0.059907,0.059907,0.059907,0.059907,0.059907,0.059907,0.059907,0.059907]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ZOZ9O5ZCqh","event_id":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":null,"question":"The Pentagon designates Anthropic a supply chain risk, AND invokes the Defense Production Act","group_item_title":"The Pentagon designates Anthropic a supply chain risk, AND invokes the Defense Production Act","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.045423,0.954577],"probability":0.045423,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-27T22:02:48.718000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":16411.327472356155,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":35.36203384399414,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:55:19.458107Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:53:55.520585Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","event_title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","chart_24h":[0.045423,0.045423,0.045423,0.045423,0.045423,0.045423,0.045423,0.045423,0.045423,0.045423,0.045423,0.045423,0.045423,0.045423,0.045423,0.045423,0.045423,0.045423,0.045423,0.045423,0.045423,0.045423,0.045423,0.045423,0.045423,0.045423,0.045423,0.045423,0.045423]},{"source":"manifold","id":"2ZI2ZOLqZQ","event_id":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":null,"question":"Autonomous weapon + surveillance Claude safeguards are removed for the Pentagon","group_item_title":"Autonomous weapon + surveillance Claude safeguards are removed for the Pentagon","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.041844,0.958156],"probability":0.041844,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-24T20:03:59.908000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21004.80896467266,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":37.18302917480469,"liquidity":250.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:55:19.458107Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:53:55.520585Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","event_title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","chart_24h":[0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844,0.041844]},{"source":"manifold","id":"NL8NZgEAn6","event_id":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":null,"question":"Will Amazon have to divest / break with Anthropic in 2026?","group_item_title":"Will Amazon have to divest / break with Anthropic in 2026?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.033706,0.966294],"probability":0.033706,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-27T23:51:50.593000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9847.763148481863,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.738666534423828,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:55:19.458107Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:53:55.520585Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","event_title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","chart_24h":[0.033706,0.033706,0.033706,0.033706,0.033706,0.033706,0.033706,0.033706,0.033706,0.033706,0.033706,0.033706,0.033706,0.033706,0.033706,0.033706,0.033706,0.033706,0.033706,0.033706,0.033706,0.033706,0.033706,0.033706,0.033706,0.033706,0.033706,0.033706,0.033706]},{"source":"manifold","id":"0IglIu60AO","event_id":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":null,"question":"Resignation letter signed by at least 5 Anthropic researchers","group_item_title":"Resignation letter signed by at least 5 Anthropic researchers","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.033413,0.966587],"probability":0.033413,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-26T04:00:45.240000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10695.02836417132,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.310935974121094,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:55:19.458107Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:53:55.520585Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","event_title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","chart_24h":[0.033413,0.033413,0.033413,0.033413,0.033413,0.033413,0.033413,0.033413,0.033413,0.033413,0.033413,0.033413,0.033413,0.033413,0.033413,0.033413,0.033413,0.033413,0.033413,0.033413,0.033413,0.033413,0.033413,0.033413,0.033413,0.033413,0.033413,0.033413,0.033413]},{"source":"manifold","id":"g58ggAySyE","event_id":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":null,"question":"Dario Amodei leaves or is removed from Anthropic","group_item_title":"Dario Amodei leaves or is removed from Anthropic","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.025574,0.974426],"probability":0.025574,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-25T18:23:27.238000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9285.630043150264,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.33424949645996,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:55:19.458107Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:53:55.520585Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","event_title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","chart_24h":[0.025574,0.025574,0.025574,0.025574,0.025574,0.025574,0.025574,0.025574,0.025574,0.025574,0.025574,0.025574,0.025574,0.025574,0.025574,0.025574,0.025574,0.025574,0.025574,0.025574,0.025574,0.025574,0.025574,0.025574,0.025574,0.025574,0.025574,0.025574,0.025574]},{"source":"manifold","id":"CA5UROOtO9","event_id":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":null,"question":"Anthropic stops advancing AI capabilities","group_item_title":"Anthropic stops advancing AI capabilities","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.022148,0.977852],"probability":0.022148,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-24T21:06:45.371000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21178.388187928245,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":37.244544982910156,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:55:19.458107Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:53:55.520585Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","event_title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","chart_24h":[0.022148,0.022148,0.022148,0.022148,0.022148,0.022148,0.022148,0.022148,0.022148,0.022148,0.022148,0.022148,0.022148,0.022148,0.022148,0.022148,0.022148,0.022148,0.022148,0.022148,0.022148,0.022148,0.022148,0.022148,0.022148,0.022148,0.022148,0.022148,0.022148]},{"source":"manifold","id":"QqLnRRQNu5","event_id":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":null,"question":"The Pentagon continues to use Anthropic services without the requested changes (autonomous weapon + mass surveillance of americans)","group_item_title":"The Pentagon continues to use Anthropic services without the requested changes (autonomous weapon + mass surveillance of americans)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-25T00:22:25.291000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25697.26169600841,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.704837799072266,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:55:19.458107Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:53:55.520585Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","event_title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"lE2SZC2ngN","event_id":"8QRh29ROdE","slug":null,"question":"The Pentagon and Anthropic come to some form of mutual settlement by the Friday deadline","group_item_title":"The Pentagon and Anthropic come to some form of mutual settlement by the Friday deadline","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-25T18:16:40.790000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T21:20:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":15828.45758641872,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":35.09903335571289,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:55:19.458107Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:53:55.520585Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/outcomes-of-the-anthropic-vs-us-gov","event_title":"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/8QRh29ROdE","as_of":"2026-06-10T16:59:11.654887Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?\" — top market at 8% probability across 26 outcomes","source_url":null}}