{"source":"manifold","id":"8RBqiOkTV4Ec22lY2vyv","ticker":null,"slug":"will-we-be-able-to-control-the-weat","title":"Will we be able to control the weather before 2045?","description":"\"We\" refers to humans, human-generated tools, AIs, etc. \n\nControl the weather refers to being able to cause every climate condition which is within the normal range for some region, under some reasonable timeframe. \n\nFor example, a necessary, but not sufficient, condition would be that, if it rains on one day per week in Paris, then we can decide to make it rain on Monday, and not on any day for the rest of the week, whether or not that would have been the case without our intervention.\n\nSee also:\n@/Bayesian/will-we-be-able-to-control-the-weat-f47455a10483 \n\n@/Bayesian/will-we-be-able-to-control-the-weat (This one)\n\n@/Bayesian/will-we-be-able-to-control-the-weat-ae971df8b4cd \n\nAnd for a market on a much stronger kind of control over the weather:\n@/Bayesian/will-we-have-total-control-over-the ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-04-06T19:53:07.933000Z","end_date":"2045-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2679.800335440708,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":23.392244338989258,"liquidity":1015.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Climate and Weather","Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.224685,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will we be able to control the weather before 2045?","top_outcome_probability":0.224685,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-we-be-able-to-control-the-weat","chart_24h":[0.224685,0.224685],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"8RBqiOkTV4Ec22lY2vyv","event_id":"8RBqiOkTV4Ec22lY2vyv","slug":"will-we-be-able-to-control-the-weat","question":"Will we be able to control the weather before 2045?","group_item_title":null,"description":"\"We\" refers to humans, human-generated tools, AIs, etc. \n\nControl the weather refers to being able to cause every climate condition which is within the normal range for some region, under some reasonable timeframe. \n\nFor example, a necessary, but not sufficient, condition would be that, if it rains on one day per week in Paris, then we can decide to make it rain on Monday, and not on any day for the rest of the week, whether or not that would have been the case without our intervention.\n\nSee also:\n@/Bayesian/will-we-be-able-to-control-the-weat-f47455a10483 \n\n@/Bayesian/will-we-be-able-to-control-the-weat (This one)\n\n@/Bayesian/will-we-be-able-to-control-the-weat-ae971df8b4cd \n\nAnd for a market on a much stronger kind of control over the weather:\n@/Bayesian/will-we-have-total-control-over-the ","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.224685,0.775315],"probability":0.224685,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-04-06T19:53:07.933000Z","end_date":"2045-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2679.800335440708,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":23.392244338989258,"liquidity":1015.0,"categories":["Climate and Weather","Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-we-be-able-to-control-the-weat","event_title":"Will we be able to control the weather before 2045?","chart_24h":[0.224685,0.224685]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/8RBqiOkTV4Ec22lY2vyv","as_of":"2026-06-10T11:24:47.963207Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will we be able to control the weather before 2045?\" — top market at 22% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}