{"source":"manifold","id":"8dSdLq0z9U","ticker":null,"slug":"acx-2026-will-spacex-successfully-r","title":"[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?","description":"(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41142)\nResolves according to Metaculus resolution.\n\nMetaculus high-level description:\nThis question will resolve as Yes if SpaceX successfully transfers at least 1 metric ton of propellant from one Starship to another while both are in Earth orbit during 2026.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-06T22:36:47.163000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":20792.549077777523,"volume_24hr":500.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":29.892009735107422,"normalized_volume":37.06710433959961,"liquidity":5100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.103762,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.103762,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T21:33:10.879280Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T21:33:10.879280Z","added_at":"2026-07-16T10:27:51.126114Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-spacex-successfully-r","chart_24h":[0.103762,0.103762,0.103762,0.103762,0.103762,0.103762,0.103762,0.103762,0.103762,0.103762,0.103762,0.103762,0.103762,0.103762,0.103762],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"8dSdLq0z9U","event_id":"8dSdLq0z9U","slug":"acx-2026-will-spacex-successfully-r","question":"[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41142)\nResolves according to Metaculus resolution.\n\nMetaculus high-level description:\nThis question will resolve as Yes if SpaceX successfully transfers at least 1 metric ton of propellant from one Starship to another while both are in Earth orbit during 2026.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.103762,0.896238],"probability":0.103762,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-06T22:36:47.163000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":20792.549077777523,"volume_24hr":500.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":37.910362243652344,"normalized_volume":37.06710433959961,"liquidity":5100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T21:31:53.596106Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T21:31:53.596106Z","added_at":"2026-07-16T10:27:51.126114Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-spacex-successfully-r","event_title":"[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?","chart_24h":[0.103762,0.103762,0.103762,0.103762,0.103762,0.103762,0.103762,0.103762,0.103762,0.103762,0.103762,0.103762,0.103762,0.103762,0.103762]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/8dSdLq0z9U","as_of":"2026-07-25T21:36:17.216458Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?\" — top market at 10% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}