{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/8dSdLq0z9U","as_of":"2026-10-24T19:33:06.000234Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?\" — 3% as of 2026-10-24 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/8dSdLq0z9U","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-spacex-successfully-r"},"source":"manifold","id":"8dSdLq0z9U","ticker":null,"slug":"acx-2026-will-spacex-successfully-r","title":"[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?","description":"(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41142)\nResolves according to Metaculus resolution.\n\nMetaculus high-level description:\nThis question will resolve as Yes if SpaceX successfully transfers at least 1 metric ton of propellant from one Starship to another while both are in Earth orbit during 2026.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-06T22:36:47.163000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":43832.551222823895,"volume_24hr":4000.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":72.59868621826172,"normalized_volume":42.017601013183594,"liquidity":5100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["technology-default","space","spacex","commercial-spaceflight","acx-2026-prediction-contest"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.029248,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.029248,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.00264,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2000.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T19:15:22.148698Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T19:15:22.148698Z","added_at":"2026-07-16T10:27:51.126114Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-spacex-successfully-r","chart_24h":[0.031888,0.031888,0.031888,0.029248,0.029248,0.029248,0.029248],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"8dSdLq0z9U","event_id":"8dSdLq0z9U","slug":"acx-2026-will-spacex-successfully-r","question":"[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41142)\nResolves according to Metaculus resolution.\n\nMetaculus high-level description:\nThis question will resolve as Yes if SpaceX successfully transfers at least 1 metric ton of propellant from one Starship to another while both are in Earth orbit during 2026.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.029248,0.970752],"probability":0.029248,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-06T22:36:47.163000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":43832.551222823895,"volume_24hr":4000.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.00264,"volume_24h_change":2000.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":72.47834777832031,"normalized_volume":42.017601013183594,"liquidity":5100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T19:14:42.346845Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T19:14:42.346845Z","added_at":"2026-07-16T10:27:51.126114Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-spacex-successfully-r","event_title":"[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?","chart_24h":[0.031888,0.031888,0.031888,0.029248,0.029248,0.029248,0.029248]}]}