{"source":"manifold","id":"8kCGUb6xSK9crajdUeSI","ticker":null,"slug":"will-starship-make-orbit-on-first-a","title":"Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?","description":"Whenever it launches, will the first flying stack of Starship on BFR put starship in orbit? (at least one pass around the Earth while above 100 km)\n(if the first flight is not planned to orbit, wait for the first flight that is planned to orbit, but sub-orbital tests are some lame Blue Origin garbage)\n\nUpdate 2025-08-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is waiting for a pre-flight published plan that includes putting Starship in orbit before the market can resolve. The flight must have an official plan to reach orbit, not just the capability to do so.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fqn-tj4MJfr.png?alt=media&token=12d3cecb-fabc-40a5-b9e6-981d4c304a40","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-04-10T20:39:55.480000Z","end_date":"2026-10-02T01:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":23898.946556341416,"volume_24hr":1571.9999999999998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":41.90746307373047,"normalized_volume":38.112548828125,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["space"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.910003,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?","top_outcome_probability":0.910003,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010002999999999984,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1071.9999999999998,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:54:41.782486Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:54:41.782486Z","added_at":"2026-07-15T14:51:04.498893Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BrianOlson/will-starship-make-orbit-on-first-a","chart_24h":[0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.930026,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"8kCGUb6xSK9crajdUeSI","event_id":"8kCGUb6xSK9crajdUeSI","slug":"will-starship-make-orbit-on-first-a","question":"Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Whenever it launches, will the first flying stack of Starship on BFR put starship in orbit? (at least one pass around the Earth while above 100 km)\n(if the first flight is not planned to orbit, wait for the first flight that is planned to orbit, but sub-orbital tests are some lame Blue Origin garbage)\n\nUpdate 2025-08-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is waiting for a pre-flight published plan that includes putting Starship in orbit before the market can resolve. The flight must have an official plan to reach orbit, not just the capability to do so.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fqn-tj4MJfr.png?alt=media&token=12d3cecb-fabc-40a5-b9e6-981d4c304a40","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.910003,0.089997],"probability":0.910003,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-04-10T20:39:55.480000Z","end_date":"2026-10-02T01:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":23898.946556341416,"volume_24hr":1571.9999999999998,"prob_24h_change":0.010002999999999984,"volume_24h_change":1071.9999999999998,"normalized_vol_24hr":52.29505157470703,"normalized_volume":38.112548828125,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:53:45.979890Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:53:45.979890Z","added_at":"2026-07-15T14:51:04.498893Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BrianOlson/will-starship-make-orbit-on-first-a","event_title":"Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?","chart_24h":[0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.930026,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003,0.910003]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/8kCGUb6xSK9crajdUeSI","as_of":"2026-07-25T20:11:07.512391Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?\" — top market at 91% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}