{"source":"manifold","id":"8uzA88lE2A","ticker":"8uzA88lE2A","slug":"who-will-win-the-2026-election-for-AndtddsLn0","title":"Who will win the 2026 election for California's 11th Congressional District","description":"Resolves based on the election outcome per major media calls or secretary of state. \n\nFollows the district number in the event of redistricting","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-17T12:47:03.365000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":182853.38319019674,"volume_24hr":136.4463762236575,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.784088134765625,"normalized_volume":55.040000915527344,"liquidity":12225.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"tags":["us-politics","politics-default","elections","california","san-francisco"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Scott Wiener","top_outcome_probability":0.743867,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.005790000000000073,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":136.44637622365553,"updated_at":"2026-08-08T03:20:07.292399Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-08T03:20:07.292399Z","added_at":"2026-07-12T02:23:07.967256Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BenM/who-will-win-the-2026-election-for-AndtddsLn0","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"P6yR5yzy0A","event_id":"8uzA88lE2A","slug":null,"question":"Scott Wiener","group_item_title":"Scott Wiener","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.743867,0.256133],"probability":0.743867,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-17T12:47:03.366000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":38734.757019700584,"volume_24hr":136.44637622365553,"prob_24h_change":-0.005790000000000073,"volume_24h_change":136.44637622365553,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.784088134765625,"normalized_volume":41.843441009521484,"liquidity":33.54101966249685,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-09T01:50:04.041147Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-09T01:49:56.624734Z","added_at":"2026-07-12T02:23:08.166967Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BenM/who-will-win-the-2026-election-for-AndtddsLn0","event_title":"Who will win the 2026 election for California's 11th Congressional District","chart_24h":[0.749657,0.749657,0.743867,0.743867,0.743867,0.743867,0.743867,0.743867,0.743867,0.743867,0.743867,0.743867,0.743867,0.743867,0.743867,0.743867,0.743867,0.743867,0.743867,0.743867,0.743867,0.743867,0.743867,0.743867,0.743867,0.743867,0.743867,0.743867]},{"source":"manifold","id":"8090CpzU09","event_id":"8uzA88lE2A","slug":null,"question":"Connie Chan","group_item_title":"Connie Chan","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.242148,0.757852],"probability":0.242148,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-23T00:22:42.760000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21455.744457193512,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.005735999999999991,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":37.29484558105469,"liquidity":21.069935797118198,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-09T01:50:14.468273Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-09T01:49:56.624734Z","added_at":"2026-07-12T02:23:08.166967Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BenM/who-will-win-the-2026-election-for-AndtddsLn0","event_title":"Who will win the 2026 election for California's 11th Congressional District","chart_24h":[0.236412,0.236412,0.242148,0.242148,0.242148,0.242148,0.242148,0.242148,0.242148,0.242148,0.242148,0.242148,0.242148,0.242148,0.242148,0.242148,0.242148,0.242148,0.242148,0.242148,0.242148,0.242148,0.242148,0.242148,0.242148,0.242148,0.242148,0.242148]},{"source":"manifold","id":"tU0QqQ5qsz","event_id":"8uzA88lE2A","slug":null,"question":"Nancy Pelosi","group_item_title":"Nancy Pelosi","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.005538,0.994462],"probability":0.005538,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-17T12:47:03.366000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":70562.03253978262,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.00001600000000000039,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":46.72916030883789,"liquidity":33.54101966249685,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-09T01:50:14.468273Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-09T01:49:56.624734Z","added_at":"2026-07-12T02:23:08.166967Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BenM/who-will-win-the-2026-election-for-AndtddsLn0","event_title":"Who will win the 2026 election for California's 11th Congressional District","chart_24h":[0.005522,0.005522,0.005538,0.005538,0.005538,0.005538,0.005538,0.005538,0.005538,0.005538,0.005538,0.005538,0.005538,0.005538,0.005538,0.005538,0.005538,0.005538,0.005538,0.005538,0.005538,0.005538,0.005538,0.005538,0.005538,0.005538,0.005538,0.005538]},{"source":"manifold","id":"UqRhpQQPLl","event_id":"8uzA88lE2A","slug":null,"question":"Saikat Chakrabarti","group_item_title":"Saikat Chakrabarti","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.003285,0.996715],"probability":0.003285,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-17T12:47:03.366000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":16549.539777236147,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.000017000000000000088,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":35.37852478027344,"liquidity":33.54101966249685,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-09T01:50:14.468273Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-09T01:49:56.624734Z","added_at":"2026-07-12T02:23:08.166967Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BenM/who-will-win-the-2026-election-for-AndtddsLn0","event_title":"Who will win the 2026 election for California's 11th Congressional District","chart_24h":[0.003268,0.003268,0.003285,0.003285,0.003285,0.003285,0.003285,0.003285,0.003285,0.003285,0.003285,0.003285,0.003285,0.003285,0.003285,0.003285,0.003285,0.003285,0.003285,0.003285,0.003285,0.003285,0.003285,0.003285,0.003285,0.003285,0.003285,0.003285]},{"source":"manifold","id":"QpyLpSn8h9","event_id":"8uzA88lE2A","slug":null,"question":"Christine Pelosi","group_item_title":"Christine Pelosi","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.001923,0.998077],"probability":0.001923,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-21T04:45:23.933000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":65.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":9.00000000000011e-6,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":6.580887317657471,"liquidity":18.462585812974368,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-09T01:50:14.468273Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-09T01:49:56.624734Z","added_at":"2026-07-12T02:23:08.166967Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BenM/who-will-win-the-2026-election-for-AndtddsLn0","event_title":"Who will win the 2026 election for California's 11th Congressional District","chart_24h":[0.001914,0.001914,0.001923,0.001923,0.001923,0.001923,0.001923,0.001923,0.001923,0.001923,0.001923,0.001923,0.001923,0.001923,0.001923,0.001923,0.001923,0.001923,0.001923,0.001923,0.001923,0.001923,0.001923,0.001923,0.001923,0.001923,0.001923,0.001923]},{"source":"manifold","id":"P0PqNy0tEL","event_id":"8uzA88lE2A","slug":null,"question":"Other","group_item_title":"Other","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.00155,0.99845],"probability":0.00155,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-17T12:47:03.366000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":28999.713695443672,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":5.000000000000013e-6,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":39.582027435302734,"liquidity":22.342567448912483,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-09T01:50:14.468273Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-09T01:49:56.624734Z","added_at":"2026-07-12T02:23:08.166967Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BenM/who-will-win-the-2026-election-for-AndtddsLn0","event_title":"Who will win the 2026 election for California's 11th Congressional District","chart_24h":[0.001545,0.001545,0.00155,0.00155,0.00155,0.00155,0.00155,0.00155,0.00155,0.00155,0.00155,0.00155,0.00155,0.00155,0.00155,0.00155,0.00155,0.00155,0.00155,0.00155,0.00155,0.00155,0.00155,0.00155,0.00155,0.00155,0.00155,0.00155]},{"source":"manifold","id":"QNuN5glcUR","event_id":"8uzA88lE2A","slug":null,"question":"London Breed","group_item_title":"London Breed","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.001131,0.998869],"probability":0.001131,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-23T00:26:11.049000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6226.595700840266,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":5.000000000000013e-6,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.61721420288086,"liquidity":22.342567448912483,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-09T01:50:14.468273Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-09T01:49:56.624734Z","added_at":"2026-07-12T02:23:08.166967Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BenM/who-will-win-the-2026-election-for-AndtddsLn0","event_title":"Who will win the 2026 election for California's 11th Congressional District","chart_24h":[0.001126,0.001126,0.001131,0.001131,0.001131,0.001131,0.001131,0.001131,0.001131,0.001131,0.001131,0.001131,0.001131,0.001131,0.001131,0.001131,0.001131,0.001131,0.001131,0.001131,0.001131,0.001131,0.001131,0.001131,0.001131,0.001131,0.001131,0.001131]},{"source":"manifold","id":"t6S2gZcAqp","event_id":"8uzA88lE2A","slug":null,"question":"Darren Helton","group_item_title":"Darren Helton","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.000315,0.999685],"probability":0.000315,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-17T12:47:03.366000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":110.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":1.0000000000000243e-6,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.315400123596191,"liquidity":33.54101966249685,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-09T01:50:14.468273Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-09T01:49:56.624734Z","added_at":"2026-07-12T02:23:08.166967Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BenM/who-will-win-the-2026-election-for-AndtddsLn0","event_title":"Who will win the 2026 election for California's 11th Congressional District","chart_24h":[0.000314,0.000314,0.000315,0.000315,0.000315,0.000315,0.000315,0.000315,0.000315,0.000315,0.000315,0.000315,0.000315,0.000315,0.000315,0.000315,0.000315,0.000315,0.000315,0.000315,0.000315,0.000315,0.000315,0.000315,0.000315,0.000315,0.000315,0.000315]},{"source":"manifold","id":"yqULs0yAE5","event_id":"8uzA88lE2A","slug":null,"question":"Jingchao Xiong","group_item_title":"Jingchao Xiong","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.000243,0.999757],"probability":0.000243,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-17T12:47:03.366000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":150.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":9.999999999999972e-7,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.437666893005371,"liquidity":33.54101966249685,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-09T01:50:14.468273Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-09T01:49:56.624734Z","added_at":"2026-07-12T02:23:08.166967Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BenM/who-will-win-the-2026-election-for-AndtddsLn0","event_title":"Who will win the 2026 election for California's 11th Congressional District","chart_24h":[0.000242,0.000242,0.000243,0.000243,0.000243,0.000243,0.000243,0.000243,0.000243,0.000243,0.000243,0.000243,0.000243,0.000243,0.000243,0.000243,0.000243,0.000243,0.000243,0.000243,0.000243,0.000243,0.000243,0.000243,0.000243,0.000243,0.000243,0.000243]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/8uzA88lE2A","as_of":"2026-08-09T01:51:03.896585Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Who will win the 2026 election for California's 11th Congressional District\" — top market at 74% probability across 9 outcomes","source_url":null}}