{"source":"manifold","id":"9OgZp6uC95","ticker":null,"slug":"ai-2027-reports-predictions-borne-o","title":"\"AI 2027\" report's predictions borne out by 2027?","description":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/introducing-ai-2027\n\nhttps://ai-2027.com/\n\nThis market resolves in January 2027. It resolves YES if the AI Futures Project's predictions seem to have been roughly correct up until that point. Some details here and there can be wrong, just as in Daniel's 2021 set of predictions, but the important through-lines should be correct.\n\nResolution will be via a poll of Manifold moderators. If they're split on the issue, with anywhere from 30% to 70% YES votes, it'll resolve to the proportion of YES votes. Otherwise it resolves YES/NO.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-04-03T16:48:14.938000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":123104.26254006384,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":51.57077407836914,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.19,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"\"AI 2027\" report's predictions borne out by 2027?","top_outcome_probability":0.19,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-04T05:21:30.903077Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-04T05:21:30.903077Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/ai-2027-reports-predictions-borne-o","chart_24h":[0.19,0.19],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"9OgZp6uC95","event_id":"9OgZp6uC95","slug":"ai-2027-reports-predictions-borne-o","question":"\"AI 2027\" report's predictions borne out by 2027?","group_item_title":null,"description":"https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/introducing-ai-2027\n\nhttps://ai-2027.com/\n\nThis market resolves in January 2027. It resolves YES if the AI Futures Project's predictions seem to have been roughly correct up until that point. Some details here and there can be wrong, just as in Daniel's 2021 set of predictions, but the important through-lines should be correct.\n\nResolution will be via a poll of Manifold moderators. If they're split on the issue, with anywhere from 30% to 70% YES votes, it'll resolve to the proportion of YES votes. Otherwise it resolves YES/NO.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.19,0.81],"probability":0.19,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-04-03T16:48:14.938000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":123104.26254006384,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":51.57077407836914,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:36:25.491276Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-04T05:19:44.014608Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/ai-2027-reports-predictions-borne-o","event_title":"\"AI 2027\" report's predictions borne out by 2027?","chart_24h":[0.19,0.19]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/9OgZp6uC95","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:00:41.163923Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"\"AI 2027\" report's predictions borne out by 2027?\" — top market at 19% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}