{"source":"manifold","id":"9Oq9wWXAmG5VOrnjGBgH","ticker":null,"slug":"will-elon-musk-be-alive-on-the-day","title":"Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?","description":"Open until either event happens\n\nSee: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person \n\nSee: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-mars \n\nSee: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-the-moo \n\nSee: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-orbit-or-walk-o \n\nUpdate 2025-02-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Resolution Criteria:\n\nThe market will remain open indefinitely if no human ever walks on Mars.\n\nIn the absence of a human landing on Mars, the market will resolve upon Elon Musk's death.\n\nUpdate 2025-11-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A human does not need to survive the Mars landing for the market to resolve YES. The market will resolve YES if someone walks on Mars, even if they are sent there with minimal viability (e.g., someone terminally ill who survives only 1-2 weeks).","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-23T19:19:30.051000Z","end_date":"2045-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":128586.62003362678,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":51.95466232299805,"liquidity":11000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.503092,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?","top_outcome_probability":0.503092,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-08T10:56:50.859238Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-08T10:56:50.859238Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-alive-on-the-day","chart_24h":[0.503092,0.503092],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"9Oq9wWXAmG5VOrnjGBgH","event_id":"9Oq9wWXAmG5VOrnjGBgH","slug":"will-elon-musk-be-alive-on-the-day","question":"Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Open until either event happens\n\nSee: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person \n\nSee: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-mars \n\nSee: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-the-moo \n\nSee: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-orbit-or-walk-o \n\nUpdate 2025-02-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Resolution Criteria:\n\nThe market will remain open indefinitely if no human ever walks on Mars.\n\nIn the absence of a human landing on Mars, the market will resolve upon Elon Musk's death.\n\nUpdate 2025-11-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A human does not need to survive the Mars landing for the market to resolve YES. The market will resolve YES if someone walks on Mars, even if they are sent there with minimal viability (e.g., someone terminally ill who survives only 1-2 weeks).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.503092,0.496908],"probability":0.503092,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-23T19:19:30.051000Z","end_date":"2045-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":128586.62003362678,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":51.95466232299805,"liquidity":11000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T11:54:30.495571Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-08T10:54:23.661699Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-alive-on-the-day","event_title":"Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?","chart_24h":[0.503092,0.503092]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/9Oq9wWXAmG5VOrnjGBgH","as_of":"2026-06-10T15:33:59.576385Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?\" — top market at 50% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}