{"source":"manifold","id":"9hu2uIuCEc","ticker":null,"slug":"will-donald-trump-remain-de-facto-l","title":"Will Donald Trump remain de facto leader of the United States beyond the end of his second term?","description":"Lots of possible edge cases here so this is going to be a judgement call to some extent. But here are some examples which may clarify the intent:\n\nResolves yes if:\n\nThere is a constitutional amendment allowing Trump to have a third term as President\n\nTrump dissolves the office of President and functionally becomes dictator-for-life\n\nSomeone else is elected President on a platform of \"doing exactly what Trump says\" and effectively becomes a figurehead for Trump.\n\nResolves no if:\n\nTrump peacefully transfers power to another presidential candidate who acts independently from him\n\nTrump attempts to remain in office but his authority is not recognized by other branches of government\n\nA substantial portion of the United States secedes\n\nUpdate 2024-10-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Having the same policies as Trump or seeking his advice is not sufficient for a YES resolution\n\nThe elected president must be following Trump's orders on all policy decisions to the extent that Trump's power over the country would be similar to if he were actually president\n\nUpdate 2025-03-01 (PST): - Retains control of a majority of the other powers of the presidency, such as:\n\nCommanding the military\n\nIssuing executive orders and having them take effect (AI summary of creator comment)","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-11-06T15:21:43.855000Z","end_date":"2029-01-21T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14175.048040582069,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.3038215637207,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.073183,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Donald Trump remain de facto leader of the United States beyond the end of his second term?","top_outcome_probability":0.073183,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/AndrewMaxwell/will-donald-trump-remain-de-facto-l","chart_24h":[0.073183,0.073183],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"9hu2uIuCEc","event_id":"9hu2uIuCEc","slug":"will-donald-trump-remain-de-facto-l","question":"Will Donald Trump remain de facto leader of the United States beyond the end of his second term?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Lots of possible edge cases here so this is going to be a judgement call to some extent. But here are some examples which may clarify the intent:\n\nResolves yes if:\n\nThere is a constitutional amendment allowing Trump to have a third term as President\n\nTrump dissolves the office of President and functionally becomes dictator-for-life\n\nSomeone else is elected President on a platform of \"doing exactly what Trump says\" and effectively becomes a figurehead for Trump.\n\nResolves no if:\n\nTrump peacefully transfers power to another presidential candidate who acts independently from him\n\nTrump attempts to remain in office but his authority is not recognized by other branches of government\n\nA substantial portion of the United States secedes\n\nUpdate 2024-10-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Having the same policies as Trump or seeking his advice is not sufficient for a YES resolution\n\nThe elected president must be following Trump's orders on all policy decisions to the extent that Trump's power over the country would be similar to if he were actually president\n\nUpdate 2025-03-01 (PST): - Retains control of a majority of the other powers of the presidency, such as:\n\nCommanding the military\n\nIssuing executive orders and having them take effect (AI summary of creator comment)","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.073183,0.926817],"probability":0.073183,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-11-06T15:21:43.855000Z","end_date":"2029-01-21T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14175.048040582069,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.3038215637207,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/AndrewMaxwell/will-donald-trump-remain-de-facto-l","event_title":"Will Donald Trump remain de facto leader of the United States beyond the end of his second term?","chart_24h":[0.073183,0.073183]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/9hu2uIuCEc","as_of":"2026-06-10T13:58:40.940181Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Donald Trump remain de facto leader of the United States beyond the end of his second term?\" — top market at 7% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}