{"source":"manifold","id":"9nsyLEANnz","ticker":null,"slug":"will-california-billionaires-have-t","title":"Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?","description":"The \"2026 Billionaire Tax Act\" is a proposed initiative that would confiscate 5% of California billionaires wealth. \n\nhttps://calmatters.org/health/2025/10/billionaire-tax-initiative/\n\nWill a ballot measure that is basically this get on the ballot and pass in California by EoY 2026? Resolves YES if so, NO otherwise.\n\nUpdate 2025-12-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if the ballot measure gets on the ballot and passes, even if it is subsequently held up by a court injunction and not actually in effect by end of 2026. The resolution is based on whether it passes, not whether it takes effect.\n\nUpdate 2026-01-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will not resolve N/A under any circumstances. If elections were cancelled or similar extraordinary events occurred, the market would resolve NO. The market resolves YES only if the ballot measure gets on a ballot and passes, NO in all other cases.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-25T19:38:59.905000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":273979.5078765305,"volume_24hr":50.23949228455476,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.671390533447266,"normalized_volume":58.81266403198242,"liquidity":1100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.283562,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?","top_outcome_probability":0.283562,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.006437999999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-449.7605077154452,"updated_at":"2026-07-15T22:06:31.564111Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-15T22:06:31.564111Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JohnDavidPressman/will-california-billionaires-have-t","chart_24h":[0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.274916,0.274916,0.274916,0.274916,0.283562,0.283562,0.283562,0.283562,0.283562,0.283562,0.283562,0.283562],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"9nsyLEANnz","event_id":"9nsyLEANnz","slug":"will-california-billionaires-have-t","question":"Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?","group_item_title":null,"description":"The \"2026 Billionaire Tax Act\" is a proposed initiative that would confiscate 5% of California billionaires wealth. \n\nhttps://calmatters.org/health/2025/10/billionaire-tax-initiative/\n\nWill a ballot measure that is basically this get on the ballot and pass in California by EoY 2026? Resolves YES if so, NO otherwise.\n\nUpdate 2025-12-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if the ballot measure gets on the ballot and passes, even if it is subsequently held up by a court injunction and not actually in effect by end of 2026. The resolution is based on whether it passes, not whether it takes effect.\n\nUpdate 2026-01-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will not resolve N/A under any circumstances. If elections were cancelled or similar extraordinary events occurred, the market would resolve NO. The market resolves YES only if the ballot measure gets on a ballot and passes, NO in all other cases.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.283562,0.716438],"probability":0.283562,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-25T19:38:59.905000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":273979.5078765305,"volume_24hr":50.23949228455476,"prob_24h_change":-0.006437999999999999,"volume_24h_change":-449.7605077154452,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.671390533447266,"normalized_volume":58.81266403198242,"liquidity":1100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-15T22:03:43.707187Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-15T22:03:43.707187Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JohnDavidPressman/will-california-billionaires-have-t","event_title":"Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?","chart_24h":[0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.274916,0.274916,0.274916,0.274916,0.283562,0.283562,0.283562,0.283562,0.283562,0.283562,0.283562,0.283562]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/9nsyLEANnz","as_of":"2026-07-15T22:16:28.045340Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?\" — top market at 28% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}