{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/9nsyLEANnz","as_of":"2026-10-14T03:39:37.489035Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?\" — 31% as of 2026-10-14 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/9nsyLEANnz","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/JohnDavidPressman/will-california-billionaires-have-t"},"source":"manifold","id":"9nsyLEANnz","ticker":null,"slug":"will-california-billionaires-have-t","title":"Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?","description":"The \"2026 Billionaire Tax Act\" is a proposed initiative that would confiscate 5% of California billionaires wealth. \n\nhttps://calmatters.org/health/2025/10/billionaire-tax-initiative/\n\nWill a ballot measure that is basically this get on the ballot and pass in California by EoY 2026? Resolves YES if so, NO otherwise.\n\nUpdate 2025-12-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if the ballot measure gets on the ballot and passes, even if it is subsequently held up by a court injunction and not actually in effect by end of 2026. The resolution is based on whether it passes, not whether it takes effect.\n\nUpdate 2026-01-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will not resolve N/A under any circumstances. If elections were cancelled or similar extraordinary events occurred, the market would resolve NO. The market resolves YES only if the ballot measure gets on a ballot and passes, NO in all other cases.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-25T19:38:59.905000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":290045.0126316286,"volume_24hr":308.0839963188757,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":30.632604598999023,"normalized_volume":58.21302795410156,"liquidity":1100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["big-tech","us-democracy","california","us-politics","california-politics"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.30811,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?","top_outcome_probability":0.30811,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.03163699999999997,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":258.0839963188757,"updated_at":"2026-10-14T03:38:02.532933Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-14T03:38:02.532933Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JohnDavidPressman/will-california-billionaires-have-t","chart_24h":[0.276473,0.276473,0.276473,0.276473,0.276473,0.276473,0.276473,0.276473,0.29648,0.29648,0.276593,0.276593,0.276593,0.276593,0.276593,0.276593,0.276593,0.276593,0.276593,0.276593,0.276593,0.276593,0.276593,0.276593,0.276593,0.267157,0.267157,0.267157,0.30811,0.30811],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"9nsyLEANnz","event_id":"9nsyLEANnz","slug":"will-california-billionaires-have-t","question":"Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?","group_item_title":null,"description":"The \"2026 Billionaire Tax Act\" is a proposed initiative that would confiscate 5% of California billionaires wealth. \n\nhttps://calmatters.org/health/2025/10/billionaire-tax-initiative/\n\nWill a ballot measure that is basically this get on the ballot and pass in California by EoY 2026? Resolves YES if so, NO otherwise.\n\nUpdate 2025-12-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if the ballot measure gets on the ballot and passes, even if it is subsequently held up by a court injunction and not actually in effect by end of 2026. The resolution is based on whether it passes, not whether it takes effect.\n\nUpdate 2026-01-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will not resolve N/A under any circumstances. If elections were cancelled or similar extraordinary events occurred, the market would resolve NO. The market resolves YES only if the ballot measure gets on a ballot and passes, NO in all other cases.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.30811,0.69189],"probability":0.30811,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-25T19:38:59.905000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":290045.0126316286,"volume_24hr":308.0839963188757,"prob_24h_change":0.03163699999999997,"volume_24h_change":258.0839963188757,"normalized_vol_24hr":30.632604598999023,"normalized_volume":58.21302795410156,"liquidity":1100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-14T03:37:34.609726Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-14T03:37:34.609726Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JohnDavidPressman/will-california-billionaires-have-t","event_title":"Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?","chart_24h":[0.276473,0.276473,0.276473,0.276473,0.276473,0.276473,0.276473,0.276473,0.29648,0.29648,0.276593,0.276593,0.276593,0.276593,0.276593,0.276593,0.276593,0.276593,0.276593,0.276593,0.276593,0.276593,0.276593,0.276593,0.276593,0.267157,0.267157,0.267157,0.30811,0.30811]}]}