{"source":"manifold","id":"9pZ9UhNuNg","ticker":null,"slug":"trump-tries-to-serve-a-third-term","title":"Trump tries to serve a third term?","description":"Resolution Criteria\n\nThis market resolves YES if Donald Trump makes a formal attempt to serve a third term as President of the United States after having already served two terms. This includes but is the not limited to:\n\nFiling paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to run for a third term\n\nPursuing legal challenges to the 22nd Amendment\n\nAttempting to assume the presidency through other means (such as becoming Vice President and then assuming the presidency)\n\nThe market resolves NO if Trump does not make any formal attempt to serve a third term by January 20, 2033 (the end of what would be a third term if he were elected in 2028).\n\nBackground\n\nThe 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, ratified in 1951, explicitly states that \"no person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.\" Trump has previously served one term as president (2017-2021) and is currently running for a second term in the 2024 election.\n\nTrump has made comments suggesting interest in serving beyond two terms. He has floated scenarios such as running as Vice President under JD Vance and then assuming the presidency, though constitutional scholars consider these ideas legally unfeasible.\n\nConsiderations\n\nAny attempt to serve a third term would face significant constitutional barriers. Overcoming these would require either a constitutional amendment (requiring approval from two-thirds of Congress and ratification by three-fourths of states) or novel legal interpretations that would likely face immediate court challenges.\n\nUpdate 2025-04-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Scenarios Considered as a Formal Attempt:\n\nMilitary Directive: Directing the military to keep him in office would qualify as a formal attempt.\n\nVice Presidency Trick: Using a vice presidential maneuver to assume the presidency is counted.\n\nSpeaker Strategy: Becoming Speaker to prompt resignations in order to take power would be treated as a formal attempt.\n\nAmendment Initiative: Significantly pushing Congress to pass an amendment to overcome the 22nd Amendment counts as a formal attempt.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-03-31T23:44:23.252000Z","end_date":"2029-01-21T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":101854.74101813811,"volume_24hr":16.740590087855253,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.755278587341309,"normalized_volume":49.86138153076172,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["politics-default","trumps-second-term","donald-trump","magaland","us-politics","us-democracy"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.19,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Trump tries to serve a third term?","top_outcome_probability":0.19,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":16.740590087855253,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T14:56:35.000259Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T14:56:35.000259Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Tiger/trump-tries-to-serve-a-third-term","chart_24h":[0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"9pZ9UhNuNg","event_id":"9pZ9UhNuNg","slug":"trump-tries-to-serve-a-third-term","question":"Trump tries to serve a third term?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolution Criteria\n\nThis market resolves YES if Donald Trump makes a formal attempt to serve a third term as President of the United States after having already served two terms. This includes but is the not limited to:\n\nFiling paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to run for a third term\n\nPursuing legal challenges to the 22nd Amendment\n\nAttempting to assume the presidency through other means (such as becoming Vice President and then assuming the presidency)\n\nThe market resolves NO if Trump does not make any formal attempt to serve a third term by January 20, 2033 (the end of what would be a third term if he were elected in 2028).\n\nBackground\n\nThe 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, ratified in 1951, explicitly states that \"no person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.\" Trump has previously served one term as president (2017-2021) and is currently running for a second term in the 2024 election.\n\nTrump has made comments suggesting interest in serving beyond two terms. He has floated scenarios such as running as Vice President under JD Vance and then assuming the presidency, though constitutional scholars consider these ideas legally unfeasible.\n\nConsiderations\n\nAny attempt to serve a third term would face significant constitutional barriers. Overcoming these would require either a constitutional amendment (requiring approval from two-thirds of Congress and ratification by three-fourths of states) or novel legal interpretations that would likely face immediate court challenges.\n\nUpdate 2025-04-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Scenarios Considered as a Formal Attempt:\n\nMilitary Directive: Directing the military to keep him in office would qualify as a formal attempt.\n\nVice Presidency Trick: Using a vice presidential maneuver to assume the presidency is counted.\n\nSpeaker Strategy: Becoming Speaker to prompt resignations in order to take power would be treated as a formal attempt.\n\nAmendment Initiative: Significantly pushing Congress to pass an amendment to overcome the 22nd Amendment counts as a formal attempt.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.19,0.81],"probability":0.19,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-03-31T23:44:23.252000Z","end_date":"2029-01-21T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":101854.74101813811,"volume_24hr":16.740590087855253,"prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"volume_24h_change":16.740590087855253,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.755278587341309,"normalized_volume":49.86138153076172,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T14:56:14.248913Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T14:56:14.248913Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Tiger/trump-tries-to-serve-a-third-term","event_title":"Trump tries to serve a third term?","chart_24h":[0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/9pZ9UhNuNg","as_of":"2026-07-25T15:06:59.679225Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Trump tries to serve a third term?\" — top market at 19% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}