{"source":"manifold","id":"9z0A0ZqDwcjXfJhiKh8I","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-effective-altruism-movemen-01f70cdf45f6","title":"Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?","description":"Resolves according to my subjective judgement. I will welcome stakeholder input when resolving the question but reserve the right to resolve contrary to the opinion of market participants if necessary. I reserve the right to bet on this market but tentatively expect to stop betting in the last two years (2026-2027). \n\n\"Popular\" being a loosely defined combination of public attention / resources, total adherents, and references in social discourse.\n\nResolves as N/A if there doesn't seem to be a clear answer at close.\n\nRelated markets from me on subjective popularity: \n\n[markets]\nRelated markets from me on effective altruism:\n\n\n[markets]","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-10-21T15:29:12.156000Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11474.821763245136,"volume_24hr":100.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.983034133911133,"normalized_volume":32.19913864135742,"liquidity":2070.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.690834,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?","top_outcome_probability":0.690834,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.014652999999999916,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":100.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-05T01:16:33.290746Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T01:16:33.290746Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldChampion/will-the-effective-altruism-movemen-01f70cdf45f6","chart_24h":[0.676181,0.690834,0.690834,0.690834,0.690834,0.690834,0.690834,0.690834],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"9z0A0ZqDwcjXfJhiKh8I","event_id":"9z0A0ZqDwcjXfJhiKh8I","slug":"will-the-effective-altruism-movemen-01f70cdf45f6","question":"Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves according to my subjective judgement. I will welcome stakeholder input when resolving the question but reserve the right to resolve contrary to the opinion of market participants if necessary. I reserve the right to bet on this market but tentatively expect to stop betting in the last two years (2026-2027). \n\n\"Popular\" being a loosely defined combination of public attention / resources, total adherents, and references in social discourse.\n\nResolves as N/A if there doesn't seem to be a clear answer at close.\n\nRelated markets from me on subjective popularity: \n\n[markets]\nRelated markets from me on effective altruism:\n\n\n[markets]","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.690834,0.309166],"probability":0.690834,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-10-21T15:29:12.156000Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11474.821763245136,"volume_24hr":100.0,"prob_24h_change":0.014652999999999916,"volume_24h_change":100.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.983034133911133,"normalized_volume":32.19913864135742,"liquidity":2070.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-05T05:38:31.412223Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T05:37:25.103176Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldChampion/will-the-effective-altruism-movemen-01f70cdf45f6","event_title":"Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?","chart_24h":[0.676181,0.690834,0.690834,0.690834,0.690834,0.690834,0.690834,0.690834]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/9z0A0ZqDwcjXfJhiKh8I","as_of":"2026-10-05T05:45:15.811183Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?\" — top market at 69% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}