{"source":"manifold","id":"AAqOARCp9I","ticker":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":"manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","description":"Based on Nate Silver's article (although I think he skipped #86):\n\nhttps://www.natesilver.net/p/113-predictions-for-trumps-second\n\n\nAll predictions without and end date will be assumed to be on the last day of Trump's term, 1/20/2029.\n\n\nI will take a snapshot of the percentages on 2/9/2025 (to hopefully get enough volume) to track for this market:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/StopPunting/trumps-second-term-will-manifold-ou?play=true)\nAlso See:\n\n@/StopPunting/which-trump-2028-term-prediction-ca \n\n@/StopPunting/which-trump-term-prediction-categor \n\nUpdate 2025-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:\n\nApproval Rating Date: The approval rating will be taken on the day of the 2026 midterms, not at any earlier point if the threshold is reached beforehand.\n\nUpdate 2025-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Timing Clarification:\n\nThe status of each cabinet position (confirmation/occupation) is determined strictly on the day of the 2026 midterms.\n\nA candidate is considered to have kept their post if they are still confirmed or occupying the position on that date.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/StopPunting/llgClN6RgS.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.012000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":79975.74241558053,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":47.88981246948242,"liquidity":11300.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["nate-silver","donald-trump","manifold-6748e065087e","politics-default","us-politics"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 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