{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/AAqOARCp9I","as_of":"2026-11-01T14:15:20.627045Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions\" — 113 markets; highest \"[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)\" at 100% as of 2026-11-01 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/AAqOARCp9I","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict"},"source":"manifold","id":"AAqOARCp9I","ticker":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":"manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","description":"Based on Nate Silver's article (although I think he skipped #86):\n\nhttps://www.natesilver.net/p/113-predictions-for-trumps-second\n\n\nAll predictions without and end date will be assumed to be on the last day of Trump's term, 1/20/2029.\n\n\nI will take a snapshot of the percentages on 2/9/2025 (to hopefully get enough volume) to track for this market:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/StopPunting/trumps-second-term-will-manifold-ou?play=true)\nAlso See:\n\n@/StopPunting/which-trump-2028-term-prediction-ca \n\n@/StopPunting/which-trump-term-prediction-categor \n\nUpdate 2025-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:\n\nApproval Rating Date: The approval rating will be taken on the day of the 2026 midterms, not at any earlier point if the threshold is reached beforehand.\n\nUpdate 2025-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Timing Clarification:\n\nThe status of each cabinet position (confirmation/occupation) is determined strictly on the day of the 2026 midterms.\n\nA candidate is considered to have kept their post if they are still confirmed or occupying the position on that date.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/StopPunting/llgClN6RgS.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.012000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":87269.6829849993,"volume_24hr":2559.851615582927,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":61.17121124267578,"normalized_volume":47.594444274902344,"liquidity":11300.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["nate-silver","donald-trump","manifold-6748e065087e","politics-default","us-politics"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-11-01T10:57:22.222741Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T10:57:22.222741Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","chart_24h":[10.0,10.0,2343.778293906738,2343.778293906738,2559.851615582927],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":113,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"ERpCS0tttQ","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)","group_item_title":"[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.860865,0.139135],"probability":0.860865,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:07:56.633000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":49.99999999999997,"volume_24hr":10.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.00917699999999999,"volume_24h_change":10.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.710563659667969,"normalized_volume":5.684690475463867,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:09.179788Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.870042,0.870042,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865,0.860865]},{"source":"manifold","id":"0ALOtC2IOq","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)","group_item_title":"[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.713908,0.286092],"probability":0.713908,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":181.07015733483362,"volume_24hr":50.0,"prob_24h_change":0.17565200000000003,"volume_24h_change":50.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":15.35348892211914,"normalized_volume":9.959977149963379,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:09.179788Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.538256,0.538256,0.538256,0.538256,0.538256,0.538256,0.538256,0.538256,0.538256,0.538256,0.538256,0.538256,0.538256,0.538256,0.538256,0.538256,0.538256,0.538256,0.538256,0.538256,0.538256,0.713908,0.713908,0.713908,0.713908,0.713908,0.713908,0.713908,0.713908,0.713908,0.713908]},{"source":"manifold","id":"O2g8u0cNLL","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)","group_item_title":"[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.593244,0.406756],"probability":0.593244,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":116.73957670964745,"volume_24hr":50.0,"prob_24h_change":0.259554,"volume_24h_change":50.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":15.35348892211914,"normalized_volume":8.361369132995605,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:09.179788Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.33369,0.33369,0.33369,0.33369,0.33369,0.33369,0.33369,0.33369,0.33369,0.33369,0.33369,0.33369,0.33369,0.33369,0.33369,0.33369,0.33369,0.33369,0.33369,0.33369,0.33369,0.593244,0.593244,0.593244,0.593244,0.593244,0.593244,0.593244,0.593244,0.593244,0.593244]},{"source":"manifold","id":"hhIuuL9u5s","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)","group_item_title":"[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.5,0.5],"probability":0.5,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":90.9607875684251,"volume_24hr":50.00000000000001,"prob_24h_change":-0.05103100000000005,"volume_24h_change":50.00000000000001,"normalized_vol_24hr":15.35348892211914,"normalized_volume":7.517214298248291,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:09.179788Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.551031,0.551031,0.551031,0.551031,0.551031,0.551031,0.551031,0.551031,0.551031,0.551031,0.551031,0.551031,0.551031,0.551031,0.551031,0.551031,0.551031,0.551031,0.551031,0.551031,0.551031,0.551031,0.551031,0.551031,0.551031,0.551031,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5]},{"source":"manifold","id":"QgudCRNt92","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)","group_item_title":"[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.492043,0.507957],"probability":0.492043,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":62.820166278170674,"volume_24hr":10.0,"prob_24h_change":0.053264000000000034,"volume_24h_change":10.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.710563659667969,"normalized_volume":6.3516106605529785,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:09.179788Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.438779,0.438779,0.438779,0.438779,0.438779,0.438779,0.438779,0.438779,0.438779,0.438779,0.438779,0.438779,0.438779,0.438779,0.438779,0.438779,0.438779,0.438779,0.438779,0.438779,0.438779,0.438779,0.438779,0.438779,0.438779,0.438779,0.492043,0.492043,0.492043,0.492043,0.492043]},{"source":"manifold","id":"tc9zLC58sS","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)","group_item_title":"[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.355047,0.644953],"probability":0.355047,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":44.532570645714884,"volume_24hr":10.0,"prob_24h_change":0.06320799999999999,"volume_24h_change":10.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.710563659667969,"normalized_volume":5.361515045166016,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:09.179788Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.291839,0.291839,0.291839,0.291839,0.291839,0.291839,0.291839,0.291839,0.291839,0.291839,0.291839,0.291839,0.291839,0.291839,0.291839,0.291839,0.291839,0.291839,0.291839,0.291839,0.291839,0.291839,0.291839,0.291839,0.291839,0.291839,0.291839,0.355047,0.355047,0.355047,0.355047]},{"source":"manifold","id":"dLtq6zpz9C","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)","group_item_title":"[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.17186,0.82814],"probability":0.17186,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":49.073321676188925,"volume_24hr":6.073321676188925,"prob_24h_change":-0.03859199999999999,"volume_24h_change":6.073321676188925,"normalized_vol_24hr":3.80104398727417,"normalized_volume":5.631789684295654,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:09.179788Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.210452,0.210452,0.210452,0.210452,0.210452,0.210452,0.210452,0.210452,0.210452,0.210452,0.210452,0.210452,0.210452,0.210452,0.210452,0.210452,0.210452,0.210452,0.210452,0.210452,0.210452,0.210452,0.210452,0.210452,0.210452,0.210452,0.210452,0.17186,0.17186,0.17186,0.17186]},{"source":"manifold","id":"R8Qz2LPnI5","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)","group_item_title":"[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.141344,0.858656],"probability":0.141344,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":123.00874207833351,"volume_24hr":40.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.048656000000000005,"volume_24h_change":40.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":13.696269035339355,"normalized_volume":8.54428768157959,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","Denmark"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:09.179788Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.141344,0.141344,0.141344,0.141344]},{"source":"manifold","id":"RPs9NgpRlh","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)","group_item_title":"[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.110578,0.889422],"probability":0.110578,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":159.0,"volume_24hr":100.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.118191,"volume_24h_change":100.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":21.15361785888672,"normalized_volume":9.47153091430664,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:09.179788Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.228769,0.228769,0.228769,0.228769,0.228769,0.228769,0.228769,0.228769,0.228769,0.228769,0.228769,0.228769,0.228769,0.228769,0.228769,0.228769,0.228769,0.228769,0.228769,0.228769,0.228769,0.228769,0.110578,0.110578,0.110578,0.110578,0.110578,0.110578,0.110578,0.110578,0.110578]},{"source":"manifold","id":"uNgRO85q6Z","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)","group_item_title":"[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.1,0.9],"probability":0.1,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":125.0,"volume_24hr":100.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.042039999999999994,"volume_24h_change":100.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":21.15361785888672,"normalized_volume":8.600852966308594,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:09.179788Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.14204,0.14204,0.14204,0.14204,0.14204,0.14204,0.14204,0.14204,0.14204,0.14204,0.14204,0.14204,0.14204,0.14204,0.14204,0.14204,0.14204,0.14204,0.14204,0.14204,0.14204,0.14204,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ERzSlRPR28","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)","group_item_title":"[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.088688,0.911312],"probability":0.088688,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":772.7822582345482,"volume_24hr":200.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.318921,"volume_24h_change":200.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":27.93262481689453,"normalized_volume":16.267850875854492,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:09.179788Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.407609,0.407609,0.407609,0.407609,0.407609,0.407609,0.407609,0.407609,0.407609,0.407609,0.407609,0.407609,0.407609,0.407609,0.407609,0.407609,0.407609,0.407609,0.407609,0.407609,0.407609,0.17052,0.17052,0.17052,0.17052,0.17052,0.17052,0.088688,0.088688,0.088688,0.088688]},{"source":"manifold","id":"qn9O8cOg0p","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)","group_item_title":"[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.032671,0.967329],"probability":0.032671,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:08:30.638000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":284.8712090146872,"volume_24hr":250.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.070941,"volume_24h_change":250.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":30.321754455566406,"normalized_volume":11.761608123779297,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:09.179788Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.103612,0.103612,0.103612,0.103612,0.103612,0.103612,0.103612,0.103612,0.103612,0.103612,0.103612,0.103612,0.103612,0.103612,0.103612,0.103612,0.103612,0.103612,0.103612,0.103612,0.103612,0.103612,0.032671,0.032671,0.032671,0.032671,0.032671,0.032671,0.032671,0.032671,0.032671]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ZS990lRUQl","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)","group_item_title":"[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.024238,0.975762],"probability":0.024238,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":370.0,"volume_24hr":250.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.039121,"volume_24h_change":250.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":30.321754455566406,"normalized_volume":12.870763778686523,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:09.179788Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.063359,0.063359,0.063359,0.063359,0.063359,0.063359,0.063359,0.063359,0.063359,0.063359,0.063359,0.063359,0.063359,0.063359,0.063359,0.063359,0.063359,0.063359,0.063359,0.063359,0.063359,0.063359,0.024238,0.024238,0.024238,0.024238,0.024238,0.024238,0.024238,0.024238,0.024238]},{"source":"manifold","id":"9st8gldPL5","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)","group_item_title":"[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":850.9148078561747,"volume_24hr":780.9148078561747,"prob_24h_change":-0.169124,"volume_24h_change":780.9148078561747,"normalized_vol_24hr":44.07524108886719,"normalized_volume":16.74180793762207,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:09.179788Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.179124,0.179124,0.179124,0.179124,0.179124,0.179124,0.179124,0.179124,0.179124,0.179124,0.179124,0.179124,0.179124,0.179124,0.179124,0.179124,0.179124,0.179124,0.179124,0.179124,0.179124,0.179124,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01]},{"source":"manifold","id":"tOlh5I96lu","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)","group_item_title":"[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":712.8634860505632,"volume_24hr":652.8634860505632,"prob_24h_change":-0.06870000000000001,"volume_24h_change":652.8634860505632,"normalized_vol_24hr":41.740440368652344,"normalized_volume":15.875978469848633,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:09.179788Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.0787,0.0787,0.0787,0.0787,0.0787,0.0787,0.0787,0.0787,0.0787,0.0787,0.0787,0.0787,0.0787,0.0787,0.0787,0.0787,0.0787,0.0787,0.0787,0.0787,0.0787,0.0787,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01]},{"source":"manifold","id":"2hRIdILSnp","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)","group_item_title":"[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:05:54.097000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":2619.915581604335,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":22.782896041870117,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"8LtO6zAuhP","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)","group_item_title":"[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:06:47.825000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":938.8072795797179,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":17.232601165771484,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ICOplNA9td","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)","group_item_title":"[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"Oq02ULsu2P","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)","group_item_title":"[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"QPQOECS5ZN","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)","group_item_title":"[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":848.4141086526383,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":16.727224349975586,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"UR8Ou9RZps","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)","group_item_title":"[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":806.5382069037437,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":16.477392196655273,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ZSNS2CLUE8","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)","group_item_title":"[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":328.54475305360086,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":12.360374450683594,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"g9cydqScng","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)","group_item_title":"[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:07:00.290000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":1089.7833960515854,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":17.990800857543945,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"h5Eusl0ESn","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)","group_item_title":"[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["China","United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"hP92u0P5Cp","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)","group_item_title":"[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","Mexico","Canada"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"hdlt5dhgO6","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)","group_item_title":"[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"hqCP6h9shA","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)","group_item_title":"[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","China"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"yIc55UNyEL","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)","group_item_title":"[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"yQAyzQ2ILy","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)","group_item_title":"[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":1103.2082128922407,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":18.05377960205078,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["China","United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"hEZ2UOAu0Q","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)","group_item_title":"[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.945512,0.054488],"probability":0.945512,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":95.3545393845344,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":7.6732096672058105,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512,0.945512]},{"source":"manifold","id":"PNtqlp0nLh","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)","group_item_title":"[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.935431,0.064569],"probability":0.935431,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":300.47130144376524,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":11.98364543914795,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431,0.935431]},{"source":"manifold","id":"E2qZszq20q","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)","group_item_title":"[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.914667,0.085333],"probability":0.914667,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":369.1445802782669,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":12.860722541809082,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667,0.914667]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ScdZ9RSyC5","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)","group_item_title":"[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.892941,0.107059],"probability":0.892941,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":39.9999999999998,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":5.071098327636719,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941,0.892941]},{"source":"manifold","id":"cuEylZ8IZt","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)","group_item_title":"[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.8631,0.1369],"probability":0.8631,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":364.6489443078409,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":12.807628631591797,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631,0.8631]},{"source":"manifold","id":"I8cNUO2C9y","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)","group_item_title":"[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.851152,0.148848],"probability":0.851152,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":48.53448320900378,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":5.600693225860596,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152,0.851152]},{"source":"manifold","id":"t8Lpp2tqNn","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)","group_item_title":"[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.843467,0.156533],"probability":0.843467,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":311.6902648795064,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":12.137537956237793,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467,0.843467]},{"source":"manifold","id":"CuOcQy28EC","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)","group_item_title":"[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.812686,0.187314],"probability":0.812686,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":64.75467585225249,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":6.443212032318115,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686,0.812686]},{"source":"manifold","id":"O0qOhn8OUN","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)","group_item_title":"[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.799366,0.200634],"probability":0.799366,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":60.39553211260311,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":6.233775615692139,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366,0.799366]},{"source":"manifold","id":"yqN8hLEpLS","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)","group_item_title":"[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.78705,0.21295],"probability":0.78705,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":273.4974250803157,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":11.593347549438477,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705,0.78705]},{"source":"manifold","id":"lcy85tZpdI","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)","group_item_title":"[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.756863,0.243137],"probability":0.756863,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:08:16.703000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":122.25883191939486,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.522797584533691,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863,0.756863]},{"source":"manifold","id":"2N2O5h9puh","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)","group_item_title":"[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.750277,0.249723],"probability":0.750277,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:05:31.367000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":128.47056394372896,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.697769165039062,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277,0.750277]},{"source":"manifold","id":"RgRQ6UluZ2","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)","group_item_title":"[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.724117,0.275883],"probability":0.724117,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":99.32197820957508,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":7.809366226196289,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117,0.724117]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ONIQpCL2ts","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)","group_item_title":"[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.72,0.28],"probability":0.72,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":53.81386493093827,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":5.895140171051025,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72]},{"source":"manifold","id":"Ut02sE5gOn","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)","group_item_title":"[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.72,0.28],"probability":0.72,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":47.34402091006967,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":5.5310893058776855,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72]},{"source":"manifold","id":"sN8RIl8lUA","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)","group_item_title":"[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.7,0.3],"probability":0.7,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":333.54084775632936,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":12.424615859985352,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7]},{"source":"manifold","id":"sOzCRLP0Cq","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)","group_item_title":"[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.69,0.31],"probability":0.69,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":197.78825958975372,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":10.299056053161621,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69]},{"source":"manifold","id":"tnq0g2Squl","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)","group_item_title":"[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.69,0.31],"probability":0.69,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":44.730676399973156,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":5.373713493347168,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69]},{"source":"manifold","id":"8AIEUutlNq","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)","group_item_title":"[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.683315,0.316685],"probability":0.683315,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":102.03135430618437,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":7.89994478225708,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315,0.683315]},{"source":"manifold","id":"8RupnsCAZI","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)","group_item_title":"[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.671141,0.328859],"probability":0.671141,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":149.12257203558534,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.235182762145996,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141,0.671141]},{"source":"manifold","id":"P6EO6Rlssp","event_id":"AAqOARCp9I","slug":null,"question":"[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)","group_item_title":"[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.622622,0.377378],"probability":0.622622,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-28T17:01:13.013000Z","end_date":"2029-02-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":327.04933901330946,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":12.340989112854004,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T14:05:28.749924Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T14:04:04.878991Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict","event_title":"Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions","chart_24h":[0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622,0.622622]}]}