{"source":"manifold","id":"ARKCZGGLUnBnhNLBgRjx","ticker":null,"slug":"will-a-human-astronaut-land-on-the","title":"Will a human astronaut land on the moon before 2027 ?","description":"The Artemis3 mission is scheduled for 2025.\n\nThe chinese space program also is planning to send astronauts to the moon, although they are targeting a later date.\n\nhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program#Proposed_missions\n\nhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Lunar_Exploration_Program#Upcoming_missions\n\nBy the end of 2026 if a human astronaut has landed on the moon this market will resolve YES.\n\nIt does not have to be the artemis mission, but it has to be a new mission (launched after this market was created).\n\n[image]","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fm3AT9DWfdK.png?alt=media&token=87d32510-b158-4311-9fe4-5b1cb7664297","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-12-29T13:07:59.869000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":42716.22182035202,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":42.10194396972656,"liquidity":1780.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.013706,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will a human astronaut land on the moon before 2027 ?","top_outcome_probability":0.013706,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-07-31T08:13:05.063232Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-31T08:13:05.063232Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Odoacre/will-a-human-astronaut-land-on-the","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"ARKCZGGLUnBnhNLBgRjx","event_id":"ARKCZGGLUnBnhNLBgRjx","slug":"will-a-human-astronaut-land-on-the","question":"Will a human astronaut land on the moon before 2027 ?","group_item_title":null,"description":"The Artemis3 mission is scheduled for 2025.\n\nThe chinese space program also is planning to send astronauts to the moon, although they are targeting a later date.\n\nhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program#Proposed_missions\n\nhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Lunar_Exploration_Program#Upcoming_missions\n\nBy the end of 2026 if a human astronaut has landed on the moon this market will resolve YES.\n\nIt does not have to be the artemis mission, but it has to be a new mission (launched after this market was created).\n\n[image]","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fm3AT9DWfdK.png?alt=media&token=87d32510-b158-4311-9fe4-5b1cb7664297","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.013706,0.986294],"probability":0.013706,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-12-29T13:07:59.869000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":42716.22182035202,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":42.10194396972656,"liquidity":1780.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T10:19:15.387484Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-31T08:10:43.635089Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Odoacre/will-a-human-astronaut-land-on-the","event_title":"Will a human astronaut land on the moon before 2027 ?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/ARKCZGGLUnBnhNLBgRjx","as_of":"2026-09-09T01:19:47.687931Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will a human astronaut land on the moon before 2027 ?\" — top market at 1% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}