{"source":"manifold","id":"AcSn2zLOLL","ticker":null,"slug":"will-us-inflation-be-3-or-more-in-2","title":"Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?","description":"This market resolves YES if the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for the United States is 3% or higher for the calendar year 2026 (Dec 2026 price level compared to Dec 2025). The resolution will be based on the 12-month headline CPI inflation rate published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm. \n\nGoes by the headline figure, typically rounded to 1 decimal. \n\nI will use most suitable replacement if BLS stops publishing this statistic or if it is widely treated as unreliable measure of inflation. \n\nI will bet in this market. If we hit ambiguity around reliability will agree with a group of representative YES and NO holders. \n\n","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-13T15:14:38.435000Z","end_date":"2027-01-12T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25222.404406765127,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.56422424316406,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.749054,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.749054,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-05T22:48:23.079890Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-05T22:48:23.079890Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Tyler31/will-us-inflation-be-3-or-more-in-2","chart_24h":[0.749054,0.749054],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"AcSn2zLOLL","event_id":"AcSn2zLOLL","slug":"will-us-inflation-be-3-or-more-in-2","question":"Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market resolves YES if the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for the United States is 3% or higher for the calendar year 2026 (Dec 2026 price level compared to Dec 2025). The resolution will be based on the 12-month headline CPI inflation rate published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm. \n\nGoes by the headline figure, typically rounded to 1 decimal. \n\nI will use most suitable replacement if BLS stops publishing this statistic or if it is widely treated as unreliable measure of inflation. \n\nI will bet in this market. If we hit ambiguity around reliability will agree with a group of representative YES and NO holders. \n\n","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.749054,0.250946],"probability":0.749054,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-13T15:14:38.435000Z","end_date":"2027-01-12T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25222.404406765127,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.56422424316406,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-05T22:46:07.329755Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Tyler31/will-us-inflation-be-3-or-more-in-2","event_title":"Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.749054,0.749054]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/AcSn2zLOLL","as_of":"2026-06-10T11:32:31.507155Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?\" — top market at 75% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}