{"source":"manifold","id":"ApSIqcLItn","ticker":"ApSIqcLItn","slug":"first-to-lose-power-khomeini-trump","title":"First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu?","description":"Which of these leaders in the conflict between US & Israel and Iran will be the first to lose power?\n\nAny process or event by which they lose their position would count, e.g. democratic process, revolution, ill health, death.\n\nIn unclear or confusing circumstances I will make a judgement based on major international media reports and Wikipedia entries within one month of credible reports.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-13T08:09:47.105000Z","end_date":"2040-03-13T08:02:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":42821.373540934524,"volume_24hr":12711.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":47.17617416381836,"normalized_volume":42.69712448120117,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["World","Health","Politics"],"tags":["death-markets","death","iran","israel","us-politics"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Benjamin Netanyahu","top_outcome_probability":0.454021,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.015978999999999965,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":500.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T06:08:08.953876Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T06:08:08.953876Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/jrmygrdn/first-to-lose-power-khomeini-trump","chart_24h":[59.51514440762562,102.42796781376302,711.0,12711.0],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"0CUIEIEPZc","event_id":"ApSIqcLItn","slug":null,"question":"Benjamin Netanyahu","group_item_title":"Benjamin Netanyahu","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.454021,0.545979],"probability":0.454021,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-13T08:09:47.105000Z","end_date":"2040-03-13T08:02:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7251.394332475203,"volume_24hr":550.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.015978999999999965,"volume_24h_change":500.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":21.04402732849121,"normalized_volume":29.66239356994629,"liquidity":3535.533905932738,"categories":["World","Health","Politics"],"countries":["United States","Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T10:22:33.454633Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T10:20:38.418069Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/jrmygrdn/first-to-lose-power-khomeini-trump","event_title":"First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu?","chart_24h":[0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.454021,0.454021,0.454021,0.454021,0.454021,0.454021,0.454021,0.454021,0.454021,0.454021]},{"source":"manifold","id":"QAZdO0Ez9P","event_id":"ApSIqcLItn","slug":null,"question":"Donald Trump","group_item_title":"Donald Trump","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.108389,0.891611],"probability":0.108389,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-13T08:09:47.105000Z","end_date":"2040-03-13T08:02:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":20521.06627753697,"volume_24hr":12050.000000000002,"prob_24h_change":0.009375999999999995,"volume_24h_change":12050.000000000002,"normalized_vol_24hr":46.64454650878906,"normalized_volume":37.010528564453125,"liquidity":3535.533905932738,"categories":["World","Health","Politics"],"countries":["United States","Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T10:22:30.489272Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T10:20:38.418069Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/jrmygrdn/first-to-lose-power-khomeini-trump","event_title":"First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu?","chart_24h":[0.099013,0.099013,0.099013,0.099013,0.099013,0.099013,0.099013,0.099013,0.099013,0.099013,0.099013,0.099013,0.099013,0.099013,0.105269,0.105269,0.105269,0.105269,0.108389,0.108389,0.108389,0.108389,0.108389,0.108389,0.108389,0.108389,0.108389,0.108389]},{"source":"manifold","id":"90lgd6ptSO","event_id":"ApSIqcLItn","slug":null,"question":"Mojtaba Khomeini","group_item_title":"Mojtaba Khomeini","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.43759,0.56241],"probability":0.43759,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-13T08:09:47.105000Z","end_date":"2040-03-13T08:02:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":15048.912930922352,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.00660299999999997,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.734676361083984,"liquidity":3535.533905932738,"categories":["World","Health","Politics"],"countries":["Iran","United States","Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T10:22:30.489272Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T10:20:38.418069Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/jrmygrdn/first-to-lose-power-khomeini-trump","event_title":"First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu?","chart_24h":[0.430987,0.430987,0.430987,0.430987,0.430987,0.430987,0.430987,0.430987,0.430987,0.430987,0.430987,0.430987,0.430987,0.430987,0.424731,0.424731,0.424731,0.424731,0.43759,0.43759,0.43759,0.43759,0.43759,0.43759,0.43759,0.43759,0.43759,0.43759]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/ApSIqcLItn","as_of":"2026-06-10T10:22:38.463738Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu?\" — top market at 11% probability across 3 outcomes","source_url":null}}