{"source":"manifold","id":"CLAtZpS9Lp","ticker":null,"slug":"will-chatgpt-fall-below-75-of-ai-ch","title":"Will chatGPT fall below 75% of AI Chatbot market share in 2026?","description":"Resolves to this site: AI Chatbot Market Share Worldwide | Statcounter Global Stats\n\nChatGPT has steadily held 80% market share according to that site.\n\nUpdate 2026-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market resolves YES if ChatGPT falls below 75% market share at any point during 2026 (not just at year-end), as measured on the linked Statcounter site for all platforms worldwide.\n\nUpdate 2026-10-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve using the monthly time series from the linked Statcounter site.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-06T11:10:24.779000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":18072.00618802509,"volume_24hr":9063.023770882954,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":56.22749710083008,"normalized_volume":35.403968811035156,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["language-models","chatgpt","gpt5-speculation","gpt4","gpt4-speculation"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.227187,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will chatGPT fall below 75% of AI Chatbot market share in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.227187,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.050822000000000006,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":255.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-05T20:10:48.693697Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T20:10:48.693697Z","added_at":"2026-10-05T16:26:20.798600Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Gen/will-chatgpt-fall-below-75-of-ai-ch","chart_24h":[0.278009,0.278009,0.254497,0.223951,0.227187],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"CLAtZpS9Lp","event_id":"CLAtZpS9Lp","slug":"will-chatgpt-fall-below-75-of-ai-ch","question":"Will chatGPT fall below 75% of AI Chatbot market share in 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves to this site: AI Chatbot Market Share Worldwide | Statcounter Global Stats\n\nChatGPT has steadily held 80% market share according to that site.\n\nUpdate 2026-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market resolves YES if ChatGPT falls below 75% market share at any point during 2026 (not just at year-end), as measured on the linked Statcounter site for all platforms worldwide.\n\nUpdate 2026-10-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve using the monthly time series from the linked Statcounter site.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.227187,0.772813],"probability":0.227187,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-06T11:10:24.779000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":18072.00618802509,"volume_24hr":9063.023770882954,"prob_24h_change":-0.050822000000000006,"volume_24h_change":255.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":56.22749710083008,"normalized_volume":35.403968811035156,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-05T20:09:05.575592Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T20:09:05.575592Z","added_at":"2026-10-05T16:26:20.798600Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Gen/will-chatgpt-fall-below-75-of-ai-ch","event_title":"Will chatGPT fall below 75% of AI Chatbot market share in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.278009,0.278009,0.254497,0.223951,0.227187]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/CLAtZpS9Lp","as_of":"2026-10-05T20:13:57.468310Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will chatGPT fall below 75% of AI Chatbot market share in 2026?\" — top market at 23% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}