{"source":"manifold","id":"CPn0O2z6d2","ticker":null,"slug":"as-predicted-by-ai-2027-will-ai-sur","title":"As predicted by AI 2027, will AI surpass all living humans in coding ability by January 2027?","description":"According to the AI Futures Project \"AI 2027\", AI coding will surpass any living person's coding abilities in January 2027.  This will resolve as Yes on Feb 1 2027 if there are no demonstrable economically valuable coding tasks that a person can do that an AI cannot do.  It will resolve as No if there are any economically valuable tasks that a human can do that AI cannot do.\n\nEvidence of an Economically Valuable Coding Task Will Include:\n\n- Any legitimate benchmark that is not saturated by AI, and contains any task a human can complete independently (such as SWEBench). \n\n- Any repeatable demonstration of such task\n\nSource:\nhttps://ai-2027.com/ → Scroll to January 2027 and hover on the Coding bar, which says AI will have a score of 2.1, indicating it has surpasses all living people. \n\n[link preview]Update 2025-04-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Scope of Role Replacement:\n\nThe resolution is now clarified to compare AI agents against professional developers in the context of full software engineering roles, not just individual competitive coding tasks.\n\nFull Replacement Requirement: The market will resolve as Yes if an AI Agent can replace any human developer 100% in all their technical work (coding, designing architecture, monitoring systems, etc.).\n\nExemption: AI research–specific technical work is exempt from this requirement.\n\nHigh Bar: This clarification establishes a high bar consistent with the AI 2027 document's claim that the AI agent will be better than any living human developer.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-04-08T17:21:26.227000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3601.050798109605,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":25.17567253112793,"liquidity":100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["ai","technical-ai-timelines"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.070136,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"As predicted by AI 2027, will AI surpass all living humans in coding ability by January 2027?","top_outcome_probability":0.070136,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-25.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:59:21.842005Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:59:21.842005Z","added_at":"2026-06-09T04:57:22.641377Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/RichBran/as-predicted-by-ai-2027-will-ai-sur","chart_24h":[0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"CPn0O2z6d2","event_id":"CPn0O2z6d2","slug":"as-predicted-by-ai-2027-will-ai-sur","question":"As predicted by AI 2027, will AI surpass all living humans in coding ability by January 2027?","group_item_title":null,"description":"According to the AI Futures Project \"AI 2027\", AI coding will surpass any living person's coding abilities in January 2027.  This will resolve as Yes on Feb 1 2027 if there are no demonstrable economically valuable coding tasks that a person can do that an AI cannot do.  It will resolve as No if there are any economically valuable tasks that a human can do that AI cannot do.\n\nEvidence of an Economically Valuable Coding Task Will Include:\n\n- Any legitimate benchmark that is not saturated by AI, and contains any task a human can complete independently (such as SWEBench). \n\n- Any repeatable demonstration of such task\n\nSource:\nhttps://ai-2027.com/ → Scroll to January 2027 and hover on the Coding bar, which says AI will have a score of 2.1, indicating it has surpasses all living people. \n\n[link preview]Update 2025-04-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Scope of Role Replacement:\n\nThe resolution is now clarified to compare AI agents against professional developers in the context of full software engineering roles, not just individual competitive coding tasks.\n\nFull Replacement Requirement: The market will resolve as Yes if an AI Agent can replace any human developer 100% in all their technical work (coding, designing architecture, monitoring systems, etc.).\n\nExemption: AI research–specific technical work is exempt from this requirement.\n\nHigh Bar: This clarification establishes a high bar consistent with the AI 2027 document's claim that the AI agent will be better than any living human developer.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.070136,0.929864],"probability":0.070136,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-04-08T17:21:26.227000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3601.050798109605,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-25.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":25.17567253112793,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:59:11.161965Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:59:11.161965Z","added_at":"2026-06-09T04:57:22.641377Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/RichBran/as-predicted-by-ai-2027-will-ai-sur","event_title":"As predicted by AI 2027, will AI surpass all living humans in coding ability by January 2027?","chart_24h":[0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136,0.070136]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/CPn0O2z6d2","as_of":"2026-06-10T10:19:17.416978Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"As predicted by AI 2027, will AI surpass all living humans in coding ability by January 2027?\" — top market at 7% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}