{"source":"manifold","id":"CjGTPfChBvnWAwepV1bP","ticker":null,"slug":"will-an-asteroid-be-mined-for-miner","title":"Will an asteroid be mined for minerals before 2040?","description":"It can be a test, but it needs to be a test of commercial mining, not just returning samples for scientific study. The mining on the asteroid must be succcesful, but it doesn't need to make it back to Earth.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fb_BZ5ZxlGH.png?alt=media&token=98a0b2be-d739-4631-9cbd-0eeaec1218f8","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-10T00:05:15.230000Z","end_date":"2040-01-01T08:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":17216.268008946525,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":35.692344665527344,"liquidity":2790.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.5538,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will an asteroid be mined for minerals before 2040?","top_outcome_probability":0.5538,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-07T18:15:49.446243Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-07T18:15:49.446243Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-an-asteroid-be-mined-for-miner","chart_24h":[0.5538,0.5538],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"CjGTPfChBvnWAwepV1bP","event_id":"CjGTPfChBvnWAwepV1bP","slug":"will-an-asteroid-be-mined-for-miner","question":"Will an asteroid be mined for minerals before 2040?","group_item_title":null,"description":"It can be a test, but it needs to be a test of commercial mining, not just returning samples for scientific study. The mining on the asteroid must be succcesful, but it doesn't need to make it back to Earth.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fb_BZ5ZxlGH.png?alt=media&token=98a0b2be-d739-4631-9cbd-0eeaec1218f8","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.5538,0.4462],"probability":0.5538,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-10T00:05:15.230000Z","end_date":"2040-01-01T08:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":17216.268008946525,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":35.692344665527344,"liquidity":2790.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-03T23:26:14.094752Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-07T18:13:46.739109Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-an-asteroid-be-mined-for-miner","event_title":"Will an asteroid be mined for minerals before 2040?","chart_24h":[0.5538,0.5538]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/CjGTPfChBvnWAwepV1bP","as_of":"2026-07-04T19:56:29.058394Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will an asteroid be mined for minerals before 2040?\" — top market at 55% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}