{"source":"manifold","id":"CtLp2yySsd","ticker":"CtLp2yySsd","slug":"when-will-starship-flight-14-happen","title":"When will Starship flight 14 happen?","description":"The dates of the last few flights are:\n\n\nFlight 7: 2025-01-16\n\nFlight 8: 2025-03-06\n\nFlight 9: 2025-05-27\n\nFlight 10: 2025-08-26\n\nFlight 11: 2025-10-13\n\nFlight 12: 2026-05-22\n\nFlight 13: @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-13-happen \n\nFlight 15: @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-15-happen-9sz26lROnl ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-04T19:37:03.388000Z","end_date":"2027-05-04T19:34:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":121681.36245164127,"volume_24hr":6211.843720151696,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":76.2652816772461,"normalized_volume":50.80038833618164,"liquidity":16000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["space","commercial-spaceflight","rockets","starship-launch-party","spacex"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before 2027-04-01","top_outcome_probability":0.982073,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-08-21T03:52:52.345999Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-21T03:52:52.345999Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T18:35:56.354176Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-14-happen","chart_24h":[4301.843720151696,6301.843720151696,6281.843720151696,7181.843720151696,7031.843720151696],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"sI8y0lACR0","event_id":"CtLp2yySsd","slug":null,"question":"Before 2027-04-01","group_item_title":"Before 2027-04-01","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.982073,0.017927],"probability":0.982073,"spread":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-05-22T11:03:09.760000Z","end_date":"2027-05-04T19:34:00Z","closed_time":"2026-08-21T03:53:15.927034Z","volume":8132.383328105733,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":30.03723907470703,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-21T03:53:15.927034Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-21T03:52:52.358326Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T18:35:56.768639Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-14-happen","event_title":"When will Starship flight 14 happen?","chart_24h":[0.982073,0.982073,0.982073,0.982073,0.982073,0.982073,0.982073,0.982073,0.982073,0.982073,0.982073]},{"source":"manifold","id":"tQt9ucqRqL","event_id":"CtLp2yySsd","slug":null,"question":"Before 2027-03-01","group_item_title":"Before 2027-03-01","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.978501,0.021499],"probability":0.978501,"spread":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-05-18T10:37:28.331000Z","end_date":"2027-05-04T19:34:00Z","closed_time":"2026-08-21T03:53:15.927034Z","volume":7081.431971187439,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.121171951293945,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-21T03:53:15.927034Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-21T03:52:52.358326Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T18:35:56.768639Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-14-happen","event_title":"When will Starship flight 14 happen?","chart_24h":[0.978501,0.978501,0.978501,0.978501,0.978501,0.978501,0.978501,0.978501,0.978501,0.978501,0.978501]},{"source":"manifold","id":"AdOPqzZpPu","event_id":"CtLp2yySsd","slug":null,"question":"Before 2027-02-01","group_item_title":"Before 2027-02-01","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.97,0.03],"probability":0.97,"spread":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-05-13T03:09:54.012000Z","end_date":"2027-05-04T19:34:00Z","closed_time":"2026-08-21T03:53:15.927034Z","volume":5320.754900992775,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":27.27374267578125,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-21T03:53:15.927034Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-21T03:52:52.358326Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T18:35:56.768639Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-14-happen","event_title":"When will Starship flight 14 happen?","chart_24h":[0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97]},{"source":"manifold","id":"cAPhqQunQL","event_id":"CtLp2yySsd","slug":null,"question":"Before 2027-01-01","group_item_title":"Before 2027-01-01","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.95,0.05],"probability":0.95,"spread":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-05-04T19:37:03.388000Z","end_date":"2027-05-04T19:34:00Z","closed_time":"2026-08-21T03:53:15.927034Z","volume":7946.190270993974,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.882919311523438,"liquidity":1666.666666666667,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-21T03:53:15.927034Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-21T03:52:52.358326Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T18:35:56.768639Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-14-happen","event_title":"When will Starship flight 14 happen?","chart_24h":[0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95]},{"source":"manifold","id":"9yNStpdAQq","event_id":"CtLp2yySsd","slug":null,"question":"Before 2026-12-01","group_item_title":"Before 2026-12-01","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.944593,0.055407],"probability":0.944593,"spread":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-05-04T19:37:03.388000Z","end_date":"2027-05-04T19:34:00Z","closed_time":"2026-08-21T03:53:15.927034Z","volume":9389.513201155227,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.003835678100586,"liquidity":1666.666666666667,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-21T03:53:15.927034Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-21T03:52:52.358326Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T18:35:56.768639Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-14-happen","event_title":"When will Starship flight 14 happen?","chart_24h":[0.944593,0.944593,0.944593,0.944593,0.944593,0.944593,0.944593,0.944593,0.944593,0.944593,0.944593]},{"source":"manifold","id":"6N9y5pzchS","event_id":"CtLp2yySsd","slug":null,"question":"Before 2026-11-01","group_item_title":"Before 2026-11-01","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.931438,0.068562],"probability":0.931438,"spread":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-05-04T19:37:03.388000Z","end_date":"2027-05-04T19:34:00Z","closed_time":"2026-08-21T03:53:15.927034Z","volume":10103.527765049439,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.502593994140625,"liquidity":1666.666666666667,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-21T03:53:15.927034Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-21T03:52:52.358326Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T18:35:56.768639Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-14-happen","event_title":"When will Starship flight 14 happen?","chart_24h":[0.931438,0.931438,0.931438,0.931438,0.931438,0.931438,0.931438,0.931438,0.931438,0.931438,0.931438]},{"source":"manifold","id":"CUIP9RCuI0","event_id":"CtLp2yySsd","slug":null,"question":"Before 2026-10-16","group_item_title":"Before 2026-10-16","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.908446,0.091554],"probability":0.908446,"spread":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-07-12T21:47:54.440000Z","end_date":"2027-05-04T19:34:00Z","closed_time":"2026-08-21T03:53:15.927034Z","volume":2866.5459653984503,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":23.48406219482422,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-21T03:53:15.927034Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-21T03:52:52.358326Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T18:35:56.768639Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-14-happen","event_title":"When will Starship flight 14 happen?","chart_24h":[0.908446,0.908446,0.908446,0.908446,0.908446,0.908446,0.908446,0.908446,0.908446,0.908446,0.908446]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ZsAt2ulLgu","event_id":"CtLp2yySsd","slug":null,"question":"Before 2026-10-01","group_item_title":"Before 2026-10-01","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.846396,0.153604],"probability":0.846396,"spread":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-05-04T19:37:03.388000Z","end_date":"2027-05-04T19:34:00Z","closed_time":"2026-08-21T03:53:15.927034Z","volume":11661.121113805917,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.489803314208984,"liquidity":1666.666666666667,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-21T03:53:15.927034Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-21T03:52:52.358326Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T18:35:56.768639Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-14-happen","event_title":"When will Starship flight 14 happen?","chart_24h":[0.846396,0.846396,0.846396,0.846396,0.846396,0.846396,0.846396,0.846396,0.846396,0.846396,0.846396]},{"source":"manifold","id":"6z5Edqs692","event_id":"CtLp2yySsd","slug":null,"question":"Before 2026-09-16","group_item_title":"Before 2026-09-16","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.524945,0.475055],"probability":0.524945,"spread":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-07-12T21:42:36.556000Z","end_date":"2027-05-04T19:34:00Z","closed_time":"2026-08-21T03:53:15.927034Z","volume":6225.409783456677,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.281034469604492,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-21T03:53:15.927034Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-21T03:52:52.358326Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T18:35:56.768639Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-14-happen","event_title":"When will Starship flight 14 happen?","chart_24h":[0.524945,0.524945,0.524945,0.524945,0.524945,0.524945,0.524945,0.524945,0.524945,0.524945,0.524945]},{"source":"manifold","id":"R6yLtESRR6","event_id":"CtLp2yySsd","slug":null,"question":"Before 2026-09-08","group_item_title":"Before 2026-09-08","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.120339,0.879661],"probability":0.120339,"spread":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-08-03T08:43:30.341000Z","end_date":"2027-05-04T19:34:00Z","closed_time":"2026-08-21T03:53:15.927034Z","volume":2565.91773537746,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.13506700000000002,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":22.835220336914062,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-21T03:53:15.927034Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-21T03:52:52.358326Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T18:35:56.768639Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-14-happen","event_title":"When will Starship flight 14 happen?","chart_24h":[0.255406,0.255406,0.120339,0.120339,0.120339,0.120339,0.120339,0.120339,0.120339,0.120339,0.120339]},{"source":"manifold","id":"qdspNdtCp5","event_id":"CtLp2yySsd","slug":null,"question":"Before 2026-09-01","group_item_title":"Before 2026-09-01","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.024641,0.975359],"probability":0.024641,"spread":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-05-04T19:37:03.388000Z","end_date":"2027-05-04T19:34:00Z","closed_time":"2026-08-21T03:53:15.927034Z","volume":24415.256124575542,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.012502000000000003,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":37.819515228271484,"liquidity":1666.666666666667,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-21T03:53:15.927034Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-21T03:52:52.358326Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T18:35:56.768639Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-14-happen","event_title":"When will Starship flight 14 happen?","chart_24h":[0.037143,0.037143,0.029947,0.029947,0.024641,0.024641,0.024641,0.024641,0.024641,0.024641,0.024641]},{"source":"manifold","id":"t859ycOU8h","event_id":"CtLp2yySsd","slug":null,"question":"Before 2026-08-01","group_item_title":"Before 2026-08-01","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-05-04T19:37:03.388000Z","end_date":"2027-05-04T19:34:00Z","closed_time":"2026-08-21T03:53:15.927034Z","volume":25973.31029154268,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.284053802490234,"liquidity":1666.666666666667,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-21T03:53:15.927034Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-21T03:52:52.358326Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T18:35:56.768639Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-14-happen","event_title":"When will Starship flight 14 happen?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/CtLp2yySsd","as_of":"2026-08-21T03:56:02.627323Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"When will Starship flight 14 happen?\" — top market at 98% probability across 12 outcomes","source_url":null}}