{"source":"manifold","id":"CuZ5U6ERuc","ticker":null,"slug":"regime-change-in-cuba-by-2030-gPsIs0th2Z","title":"Regime change in Cuba by 2030?","description":"Resolution criteria\n\nThis market resolves YES if there is a change in the fundamental structure of Cuba's political system by December 31, 2030. Regime change is defined as the replacement of the current one-party communist system with a different form of government, whether through democratic transition, internal power restructuring, or other means. The resolution will be determined by credible international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, AFP) reporting a change in the constitutional framework, the legal status of the Communist Party's monopoly on power, or the establishment of a functioning multi-party system. If the Communist Party remains the sole legal party and the current constitutional structure remains intact, the market resolves NO.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-03T08:00:12.208000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":27412.285914662774,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":39.20037841796875,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.621664,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Regime change in Cuba by 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.621664,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-05T22:48:23.079890Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-05T22:48:23.079890Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Khazar_Man_From_Turan/regime-change-in-cuba-by-2030-gPsIs0th2Z","chart_24h":[0.621664,0.621664],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"CuZ5U6ERuc","event_id":"CuZ5U6ERuc","slug":"regime-change-in-cuba-by-2030-gPsIs0th2Z","question":"Regime change in Cuba by 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolution criteria\n\nThis market resolves YES if there is a change in the fundamental structure of Cuba's political system by December 31, 2030. Regime change is defined as the replacement of the current one-party communist system with a different form of government, whether through democratic transition, internal power restructuring, or other means. The resolution will be determined by credible international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, AFP) reporting a change in the constitutional framework, the legal status of the Communist Party's monopoly on power, or the establishment of a functioning multi-party system. If the Communist Party remains the sole legal party and the current constitutional structure remains intact, the market resolves NO.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.621664,0.378336],"probability":0.621664,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-03T08:00:12.208000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":27412.285914662774,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":39.20037841796875,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Cuba"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-05T22:46:07.329755Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Khazar_Man_From_Turan/regime-change-in-cuba-by-2030-gPsIs0th2Z","event_title":"Regime change in Cuba by 2030?","chart_24h":[0.621664,0.621664]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/CuZ5U6ERuc","as_of":"2026-06-10T10:22:39.620129Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Regime change in Cuba by 2030?\" — top market at 62% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}