{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/DFifpFfh23bFgtp1MuEh","as_of":"2026-10-29T01:37:59.887189Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"When will Russia attack Europe with military force?\" — \"Never\" leads at 33% across 4 outcomes as of 2026-10-26 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/DFifpFfh23bFgtp1MuEh","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/uair01/when-will-russia-attack-europe-with"},"source":"manifold","id":"DFifpFfh23bFgtp1MuEh","ticker":"DFifpFfh23bFgtp1MuEh","slug":"when-will-russia-attack-europe-with","title":"When will Russia attack Europe with military force?","description":"https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/preventing-next-war\n\nWith its imperial ambitions, Russia represents the greatest and most ­urgent threat to NATO countries.  Once intensive fighting will have ended in Ukraine, the regime in Moscow may need as little as six to ten years to reconstitute its armed forces. Within that timeframe, Germany and NATO must enable their armed forces to deter and, if necessary, fight against Russia. Only then will they be in a position to reduce the risk of another war breaking out in Europe.\n\nA few clarifications, from the comments below:\n\nEurope:\n\nEurope = the 27 EU countries + Norway, UK, Switzerland + The Balkans + Moldova (this is still open for discussion)\n\nNot Europe = Belarus, a Russian ally - Transnistria, a Russian ally\n\nUkraine =  is excluded, because it already is under Russian attack \n\nAttack (also: offensive):\n\n An aggressive projection of armed forces to occupy or recapture territory, gain an objective or achieve some larger strategic, operational, or tactical goal. Offensives  can be waged on land, at sea, in the air or as part of a combined arms manoeuvre.\n\n(So this has to have some critical mass. Not just a temporary, limited skirmish.)\n\nWhat to do with \"never\":\n\nIt feels right to include \"never\" as a separate possibility. Russia may never attack, either because it's not their intention, it is above their capabilities, or there is sufficient deterrence. Resolution: When 2034 comes with no Russian attack, then both \"2034 or later\" and \"never\" will be accepted as correct. But it might be even more subtle:\n\nRussia has not attacked, but looks strong and aggressive - then I would recognize both \"after\" and \"never\" because you cannot tell the difference yet\n\nRussia has not attacked but looks weak and unwilling (for example: Chechnya has split off, Belarus has become friends with NATO, civil war etc.) - then I might recognize \"never\" only\n\nUpdate 2025-12-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will remain open (not be closed early) to track how predictions change over time.\n\nUpdate 2026-10-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Ukraine or Moldova joins the EU and is then attacked, that attack will 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