{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/DINr896Y6HgD252gKa0n","as_of":"2026-10-24T06:10:16.244765Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?\" — 54% as of 2026-10-23 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/DINr896Y6HgD252gKa0n","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-china-really-surpass-us-gdp-by"},"source":"manifold","id":"DINr896Y6HgD252gKa0n","ticker":null,"slug":"will-china-really-surpass-us-gdp-by","title":"Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?","description":"Some beginning to doubt the 2030s projection https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-chinas-economy-surpass-the-u-s-s-some-now-doubt-it-11662123945\n\nSep 4, 9:54pm: Probably I'll use The World Bank or something, if I consider reliable.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-09-04T20:49:27.083000Z","end_date":"2039-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":27535.33620313105,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.441890716552734,"liquidity":1170.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.54,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?","top_outcome_probability":0.54,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-50.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T11:15:20.051096Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T11:15:20.051096Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-china-really-surpass-us-gdp-by","chart_24h":[0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"DINr896Y6HgD252gKa0n","event_id":"DINr896Y6HgD252gKa0n","slug":"will-china-really-surpass-us-gdp-by","question":"Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Some beginning to doubt the 2030s projection https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-chinas-economy-surpass-the-u-s-s-some-now-doubt-it-11662123945\n\nSep 4, 9:54pm: Probably I'll use The World Bank or something, if I consider reliable.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.54,0.46],"probability":0.54,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-09-04T20:49:27.083000Z","end_date":"2039-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":27535.33620313105,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-50.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.441890716552734,"liquidity":1170.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["China","United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-23T11:13:23.189292Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T11:13:23.189292Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-china-really-surpass-us-gdp-by","event_title":"Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?","chart_24h":[0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54]}]}