{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/DKWUoTfIrbxHwQloZLG3","as_of":"2026-10-24T08:39:04.460482Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)\" — 94% as of 2026-10-11 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/DKWUoTfIrbxHwQloZLG3","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/vluzko/by-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-watc"},"source":"manifold","id":"DKWUoTfIrbxHwQloZLG3","ticker":null,"slug":"by-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-watc","title":"By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)","description":"The first question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things\n\nThe full text is: \"In 2029, AI will not be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on (what I called the comprehension challenge in The New Yorker, in 2014). Who are the characters? What are their conflicts and motivations? etc.\"\n\nJudgment will be by me, not Gary Marcus.\n\nAmbiguous whether this means start or end of 2029, so I have set it for the end.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-09-16T20:33:30.994000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T08:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":30811.543648471827,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":39.291954040527344,"liquidity":1300.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.937252,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)","top_outcome_probability":0.937252,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-11T19:52:16.955104Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-11T19:52:16.955104Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/vluzko/by-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-watc","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"DKWUoTfIrbxHwQloZLG3","event_id":"DKWUoTfIrbxHwQloZLG3","slug":"by-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-watc","question":"By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)","group_item_title":null,"description":"The first question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things\n\nThe full text is: \"In 2029, AI will not be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on (what I called the comprehension challenge in The New Yorker, in 2014). Who are the characters? What are their conflicts and motivations? etc.\"\n\nJudgment will be by me, not Gary Marcus.\n\nAmbiguous whether this means start or end of 2029, so I have set it for the end.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.937252,0.062748],"probability":0.937252,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-09-16T20:33:30.994000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T08:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":30811.543648471827,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":39.291954040527344,"liquidity":1300.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-11T19:49:49.508553Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-11T19:49:49.508553Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/vluzko/by-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-watc","event_title":"By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)","chart_24h":null}]}