{"source":"manifold","id":"E0Sst5ccqd","ticker":null,"slug":"-will-america-get-more-woke-in-2026","title":"🔮🌊 Will America get MORE WOKE in 2026? 🏳️‍⚧️✨","description":"This market resolves YES if the unweighted average of the \"Pro-Woke\" responses to the following 5 recurring polling questions in 2026 is at least 2.0 percentage points higher than the 2025 Composite Baseline (52.6%).\n\nIf the 2026 average is < 54.6%, the market resolves NO.\n\nThe \"Woke Vibe\" Index Criteria\n\nThe index is composed of 5 specific metrics from Gallup and PRRI. Each metric measures a different facet of \"woke\" culture (Gender, Race, Corporate/Economic Values).\n\n1. The Trans Acceptance Rebound\n\nPoll: Gallup Values and Beliefs (May/June release)\n\nQuestion: \"Regardless of whether or not you think it should be legal... please tell me whether you personally believe that in general it is morally acceptable... Changing one’s gender.\"\n\n2025 Baseline: 40% (Source: Gallup, June 12, 2025)\n\nWoke Direction: Higher is \"Woke\".\n\n2. The \"Systemic Racism\" Acknowledgement\n\nPoll: PRRI American Values Survey or major topical report (Sept/Oct or April release)\n\nQuestion: Agreement that \"Generations of slavery and discrimination against Black people and Native Americans have given white people unfair economic advantages.\"\n\n2025 Baseline: 51% (Source: PRRI \"Democracy at a Crossroads\", April 2, 2025)\n\nWoke Direction: Higher is \"Woke\".\n\n3. The \"Toxic Masculinity\" Rejection\n\nPoll: PRRI American Values Survey (Sept/Oct release)\n\nQuestion: Disagreement with the statement: \"Society as a whole has become too soft and feminine.\"\n\n2025 Baseline: 54% (Source: PRRI AVS, Oct 31, 2025)\n\nWoke Direction: Higher (Disagreement) is \"Woke\".\n\n4. The \"Rainbow Norms\" Check\n\nPoll: Gallup Values and Beliefs (May release)\n\nQuestion: Moral acceptability of \"Gay or lesbian relations.\"\n\n2025 Baseline: 64% (Source: Gallup, May 29, 2025)\n\nWoke Direction: Higher is \"Woke\".\n\n5. The \"Climate Priority\" Metric\n\nPoll: Gallup Environment (March/April release)\n\nQuestion: \"Protection of the environment should be given priority, even at the risk of curbing economic growth.\"\n\n2025 Baseline: 54% (Source: Gallup, March 2025)\n\nWoke Direction: Higher is \"Woke\".\n\nIf a poll question is not asked by the end of 2026 for whatever reason, the poll will be excluded from this market's resolution. If 3/5 of the questions used to resolve the market are unavailable in this fashion, the entire market will N/A. \n\nOnce the PRRI poll is available, this market will resolve. This poll came out in the second half of October for the last two years; I have set the close date accordingly. ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FyOLzEyc2hU.png?alt=media&token=c8647335-839f-4bf6-b39a-25a9235a58dc","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-31T03:07:27.966000Z","end_date":"2026-11-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":19077.04904518989,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.45589828491211,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.866894,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"🔮🌊 Will America get MORE WOKE in 2026? 🏳️‍⚧️✨","top_outcome_probability":0.866894,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-05T22:48:23.079890Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-05T22:48:23.079890Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/-will-america-get-more-woke-in-2026","chart_24h":[0.866894,0.866894],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"E0Sst5ccqd","event_id":"E0Sst5ccqd","slug":"-will-america-get-more-woke-in-2026","question":"🔮🌊 Will America get MORE WOKE in 2026? 🏳️‍⚧️✨","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market resolves YES if the unweighted average of the \"Pro-Woke\" responses to the following 5 recurring polling questions in 2026 is at least 2.0 percentage points higher than the 2025 Composite Baseline (52.6%).\n\nIf the 2026 average is < 54.6%, the market resolves NO.\n\nThe \"Woke Vibe\" Index Criteria\n\nThe index is composed of 5 specific metrics from Gallup and PRRI. Each metric measures a different facet of \"woke\" culture (Gender, Race, Corporate/Economic Values).\n\n1. The Trans Acceptance Rebound\n\nPoll: Gallup Values and Beliefs (May/June release)\n\nQuestion: \"Regardless of whether or not you think it should be legal... please tell me whether you personally believe that in general it is morally acceptable... Changing one’s gender.\"\n\n2025 Baseline: 40% (Source: Gallup, June 12, 2025)\n\nWoke Direction: Higher is \"Woke\".\n\n2. The \"Systemic Racism\" Acknowledgement\n\nPoll: PRRI American Values Survey or major topical report (Sept/Oct or April release)\n\nQuestion: Agreement that \"Generations of slavery and discrimination against Black people and Native Americans have given white people unfair economic advantages.\"\n\n2025 Baseline: 51% (Source: PRRI \"Democracy at a Crossroads\", April 2, 2025)\n\nWoke Direction: Higher is \"Woke\".\n\n3. The \"Toxic Masculinity\" Rejection\n\nPoll: PRRI American Values Survey (Sept/Oct release)\n\nQuestion: Disagreement with the statement: \"Society as a whole has become too soft and feminine.\"\n\n2025 Baseline: 54% (Source: PRRI AVS, Oct 31, 2025)\n\nWoke Direction: Higher (Disagreement) is \"Woke\".\n\n4. The \"Rainbow Norms\" Check\n\nPoll: Gallup Values and Beliefs (May release)\n\nQuestion: Moral acceptability of \"Gay or lesbian relations.\"\n\n2025 Baseline: 64% (Source: Gallup, May 29, 2025)\n\nWoke Direction: Higher is \"Woke\".\n\n5. The \"Climate Priority\" Metric\n\nPoll: Gallup Environment (March/April release)\n\nQuestion: \"Protection of the environment should be given priority, even at the risk of curbing economic growth.\"\n\n2025 Baseline: 54% (Source: Gallup, March 2025)\n\nWoke Direction: Higher is \"Woke\".\n\nIf a poll question is not asked by the end of 2026 for whatever reason, the poll will be excluded from this market's resolution. If 3/5 of the questions used to resolve the market are unavailable in this fashion, the entire market will N/A. \n\nOnce the PRRI poll is available, this market will resolve. This poll came out in the second half of October for the last two years; I have set the close date accordingly. ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FyOLzEyc2hU.png?alt=media&token=c8647335-839f-4bf6-b39a-25a9235a58dc","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.866894,0.133106],"probability":0.866894,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-31T03:07:27.966000Z","end_date":"2026-11-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":19077.04904518989,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.45589828491211,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-21T10:38:05.788038Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-05T22:46:07.329755Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/-will-america-get-more-woke-in-2026","event_title":"🔮🌊 Will America get MORE WOKE in 2026? 🏳️‍⚧️✨","chart_24h":[0.866894,0.866894]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/E0Sst5ccqd","as_of":"2026-06-21T12:57:38.452311Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"🔮🌊 Will America get MORE WOKE in 2026? 🏳️‍⚧️✨\" — top market at 87% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}