{"source":"manifold","id":"Ed0u2AZlZQ","ticker":null,"slug":"will-trumps-birthright-citizenship","title":"Will Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO be declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court before 2029?","description":"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/protecting-the-meaning-and-value-of-american-citizenship/\n\n\nUpdate 2025-21-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): ### Update from creator\n\nSupreme Court Decision:\n\nResolves to Yes if the Supreme Court overturns the EO.\n\nLower Court Decision:\n\nIf overturned by a lower court, awaits potential appeal.\n\nAdministrative Reversal:\n\nResolves to No if the Trump administration reverses the policy.\n\nUpdate:\nif a lower court declares it unconstitutional and the supreme court declines to hear the case, letting the lower court ruling stand, resolves to YES","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/jade/8RnOydNqd2.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-21T03:54:25.124000Z","end_date":"2029-01-21T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6310.210718112271,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.741905212402344,"liquidity":100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.800946,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO be declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court before 2029?","top_outcome_probability":0.800946,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/jade/will-trumps-birthright-citizenship","chart_24h":[0.800946,0.800946],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"Ed0u2AZlZQ","event_id":"Ed0u2AZlZQ","slug":"will-trumps-birthright-citizenship","question":"Will Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO be declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court before 2029?","group_item_title":null,"description":"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/protecting-the-meaning-and-value-of-american-citizenship/\n\n\nUpdate 2025-21-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): ### Update from creator\n\nSupreme Court Decision:\n\nResolves to Yes if the Supreme Court overturns the EO.\n\nLower Court Decision:\n\nIf overturned by a lower court, awaits potential appeal.\n\nAdministrative Reversal:\n\nResolves to No if the Trump administration reverses the policy.\n\nUpdate:\nif a lower court declares it unconstitutional and the supreme court declines to hear the case, letting the lower court ruling stand, resolves to YES","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/jade/8RnOydNqd2.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.800946,0.199054],"probability":0.800946,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-21T03:54:25.124000Z","end_date":"2029-01-21T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6310.210718112271,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.741905212402344,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/jade/will-trumps-birthright-citizenship","event_title":"Will Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO be declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court before 2029?","chart_24h":[0.800946,0.800946]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/Ed0u2AZlZQ","as_of":"2026-06-10T12:43:41.984464Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO be declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court before 2029?\" — top market at 80% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}