{"source":"manifold","id":"EdtWTk0SBFirD0XWdGb9","ticker":null,"slug":"will-ai-enable-a-successful-convers","title":"Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?","description":"There are currently efforts underway to leverage artificial intelligence to enable communication with other Earth species. In particular, the Earth Species Project has several parallel projects to do so: https://www.earthspecies.org/\n\nFor the purposes of this prediction, a conversation will be defined if both parties communicate at least one simple phrase or idea that the other party seemingly understands and responds to appropriately. \n\nThe human party may be aided with technology/AI/computer-generated speech. They don't have to pretend to make whalesong with nothing but their vocal chords. \n\nThis will resolve to YES if a peer-reviewed study is published before 12/31/2030 that claims a conversation has occured between a human entity and an animal. ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-20T17:08:46.877000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6669.865775785074,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.10719871520996,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.633265,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.633265,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JacobShapiro/will-ai-enable-a-successful-convers","chart_24h":[0.633265,0.633265],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"EdtWTk0SBFirD0XWdGb9","event_id":"EdtWTk0SBFirD0XWdGb9","slug":"will-ai-enable-a-successful-convers","question":"Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"There are currently efforts underway to leverage artificial intelligence to enable communication with other Earth species. In particular, the Earth Species Project has several parallel projects to do so: https://www.earthspecies.org/\n\nFor the purposes of this prediction, a conversation will be defined if both parties communicate at least one simple phrase or idea that the other party seemingly understands and responds to appropriately. \n\nThe human party may be aided with technology/AI/computer-generated speech. They don't have to pretend to make whalesong with nothing but their vocal chords. \n\nThis will resolve to YES if a peer-reviewed study is published before 12/31/2030 that claims a conversation has occured between a human entity and an animal. ","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.633265,0.366735],"probability":0.633265,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-20T17:08:46.877000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6669.865775785074,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.10719871520996,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JacobShapiro/will-ai-enable-a-successful-convers","event_title":"Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?","chart_24h":[0.633265,0.633265]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/EdtWTk0SBFirD0XWdGb9","as_of":"2026-06-10T12:03:52.592908Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?\" — top market at 63% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}