{"source":"manifold","id":"EyRsuSgI6N","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-usa-invade-canada-before-2","title":"Will the USA invade Canada before 2029?","description":"Background\n\nThe United States and Canada maintain one of the world's strongest bilateral relationships, characterized by deep economic ties, military cooperation through NATO, and extensive cultural connections. While historical military plans like War Plan Red (1930) included theoretical scenarios for invasion, these were routine strategic exercises rather than actionable plans.\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis market will resolve YES if:\n\nThe United States military conducts an offensive military operation on Canadian soil with the intent to occupy territory, sieze resources, or overthrow the Canadian government\n\nThe operation must be officially sanctioned by the U.S. government\n\nThis market will resolve NO if:\n\nNo such invasion occurs before January 1, 2029\n\nEdge cases:\n\nJoint military exercises or authorized U.S. military presence on Canadian soil will not count as an invasion\n\nIf Canada invites U.S. military intervention (e.g., to help quell domestic unrest), this will not count as an invasion\n\nLimited border skirmishes or accidental incursions will not count as an invasion","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/BrunoJ/llq22dzztc.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-22T01:46:48.703000Z","end_date":"2029-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":28016.226112467215,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":39.36774826049805,"liquidity":1100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.053184,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the USA invade Canada before 2029?","top_outcome_probability":0.053184,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BrunoJ/will-the-usa-invade-canada-before-2","chart_24h":[0.053184,0.053184],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"EyRsuSgI6N","event_id":"EyRsuSgI6N","slug":"will-the-usa-invade-canada-before-2","question":"Will the USA invade Canada before 2029?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Background\n\nThe United States and Canada maintain one of the world's strongest bilateral relationships, characterized by deep economic ties, military cooperation through NATO, and extensive cultural connections. While historical military plans like War Plan Red (1930) included theoretical scenarios for invasion, these were routine strategic exercises rather than actionable plans.\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis market will resolve YES if:\n\nThe United States military conducts an offensive military operation on Canadian soil with the intent to occupy territory, sieze resources, or overthrow the Canadian government\n\nThe operation must be officially sanctioned by the U.S. government\n\nThis market will resolve NO if:\n\nNo such invasion occurs before January 1, 2029\n\nEdge cases:\n\nJoint military exercises or authorized U.S. military presence on Canadian soil will not count as an invasion\n\nIf Canada invites U.S. military intervention (e.g., to help quell domestic unrest), this will not count as an invasion\n\nLimited border skirmishes or accidental incursions will not count as an invasion","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/BrunoJ/llq22dzztc.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.053184,0.946816],"probability":0.053184,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-22T01:46:48.703000Z","end_date":"2029-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":28016.226112467215,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":39.36774826049805,"liquidity":1100.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["United States","Canada"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BrunoJ/will-the-usa-invade-canada-before-2","event_title":"Will the USA invade Canada before 2029?","chart_24h":[0.053184,0.053184]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/EyRsuSgI6N","as_of":"2026-06-10T12:02:30.082079Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will the USA invade Canada before 2029?\" — top market at 5% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}