{"source":"manifold","id":"FWq4FWT8R5gqjiIrXKjR","ticker":null,"slug":"will-twitter-incorporate-a-predicti","title":"Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?","description":"2023-02-15 Update: Resolves positively if, by the end of 2027, Twitter has incorporated prediction market services into their platform. Can resolve positively early if Twitter incorporates prediction market functionality ahead of the closing date. \n\nEvents that make a positive resolution likely:\n\nFunctionality is added such that, in addition to Tweets or alongside a Tweet, users or organizations can create public or private markets (using play or real currency) on questions about future events\n\nTwitter refers to a new capability as a \"prediction market\"\n\nA service of Twitter's looks and feels like Manifold / PredictIt / PolyMarket's UX  \n\nOther resolution details:\n\nIf Twitter acquires a prediction market service AND incorporates it into the flagship service, it's possible this could resolve positively\n\nIf Twitter acquires a prediction market service and does NOT incorporate it into the flagship service, it's possible this could resolve negatively\n\n\n2023-08-14 Edit: For purposes of this market, 'Twitter' can be viewed as synonymous with 'X' given the re-branding. \n\n\nRelated:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/CarsonGale/will-manifold-be-acquired-by-twitte)","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FEmUc1qydYF.png?alt=media&token=5a34f5d1-c097-4f56-bd08-64f12418c4ce","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-10-29T04:57:58.799000Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":24700.73399508065,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.40535354614258,"liquidity":2885.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.366607,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?","top_outcome_probability":0.366607,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/will-twitter-incorporate-a-predicti","chart_24h":[0.366607,0.366607],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"FWq4FWT8R5gqjiIrXKjR","event_id":"FWq4FWT8R5gqjiIrXKjR","slug":"will-twitter-incorporate-a-predicti","question":"Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?","group_item_title":null,"description":"2023-02-15 Update: Resolves positively if, by the end of 2027, Twitter has incorporated prediction market services into their platform. Can resolve positively early if Twitter incorporates prediction market functionality ahead of the closing date. \n\nEvents that make a positive resolution likely:\n\nFunctionality is added such that, in addition to Tweets or alongside a Tweet, users or organizations can create public or private markets (using play or real currency) on questions about future events\n\nTwitter refers to a new capability as a \"prediction market\"\n\nA service of Twitter's looks and feels like Manifold / PredictIt / PolyMarket's UX  \n\nOther resolution details:\n\nIf Twitter acquires a prediction market service AND incorporates it into the flagship service, it's possible this could resolve positively\n\nIf Twitter acquires a prediction market service and does NOT incorporate it into the flagship service, it's possible this could resolve negatively\n\n\n2023-08-14 Edit: For purposes of this market, 'Twitter' can be viewed as synonymous with 'X' given the re-branding. \n\n\nRelated:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/CarsonGale/will-manifold-be-acquired-by-twitte)","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FEmUc1qydYF.png?alt=media&token=5a34f5d1-c097-4f56-bd08-64f12418c4ce","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.366607,0.633393],"probability":0.366607,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-10-29T04:57:58.799000Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":24700.73399508065,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.40535354614258,"liquidity":2885.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-29T15:05:30.707673Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/will-twitter-incorporate-a-predicti","event_title":"Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?","chart_24h":[0.366607,0.366607]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/FWq4FWT8R5gqjiIrXKjR","as_of":"2026-06-10T12:09:57.525900Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?\" — top market at 37% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}