{"source":"manifold","id":"G1qFhdNYQRViLyE7AkuO","ticker":null,"slug":"russia-collapses-before-2030","title":"Russia collapses before 2030","description":"Henry Kissinger and other experts consider the possibility of a collapse of Russia. \n\nFor the purpose of this market, this means either at least three Russian republics declaring their independence or Russia becoming a failed state, not controlling all or a large part of its territory.\n\nTerritories in Ukraine including Crimea are not taken into account for this market.\n\nA successful coup is not enough if the new leader still control all Russia. \n\nI will not bet on this market.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-01-26T18:53:29.216000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25965.920517927283,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.7756462097168,"liquidity":1145.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.130533,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Russia collapses before 2030","top_outcome_probability":0.130533,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-14T21:23:34.257157Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-14T21:23:34.257157Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Zardoru/russia-collapses-before-2030","chart_24h":[0.130533,0.130533],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"G1qFhdNYQRViLyE7AkuO","event_id":"G1qFhdNYQRViLyE7AkuO","slug":"russia-collapses-before-2030","question":"Russia collapses before 2030","group_item_title":null,"description":"Henry Kissinger and other experts consider the possibility of a collapse of Russia. \n\nFor the purpose of this market, this means either at least three Russian republics declaring their independence or Russia becoming a failed state, not controlling all or a large part of its territory.\n\nTerritories in Ukraine including Crimea are not taken into account for this market.\n\nA successful coup is not enough if the new leader still control all Russia. \n\nI will not bet on this market.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.130533,0.869467],"probability":0.130533,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-01-26T18:53:29.216000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T14:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25965.920517927283,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.7756462097168,"liquidity":1145.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-06-15T22:03:55.137137Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-14T21:21:19.698858Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Zardoru/russia-collapses-before-2030","event_title":"Russia collapses before 2030","chart_24h":[0.130533,0.130533]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/G1qFhdNYQRViLyE7AkuO","as_of":"2026-06-16T19:24:22.671187Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Russia collapses before 2030\" — top market at 13% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}