{"source":"manifold","id":"GSp7JeRkf92Ri42dYcgf","ticker":null,"slug":"will-a-novel-published-by-a-big-fiv","title":"Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?","description":"The traditionally recognized Big Five publishers are:\nPenguin Random House\n\nHachette\n\nHarperCollins\n\nMacmillan\n\nSimon & Schuster\n\nThe novel must be purported to be written by a human, but turn out to have been mostly* written by AI.\n\nWhat counts as \"mostly\" written by AI? As noted in the comments, it is unlikely that we would ever know exactly what percentage of the words in the final draft originated with the human author vs the AI, so there is a very high likelihood of considerable ambiguity. I will use my best judgement, taking into account opinions expressed in the comments, to resolve this fairly.\n\nIf it is revealed that the book is written by AI before publication and the publisher decides not to go through with publishing it, this will resolve to \"No\"\n\nScenarios that would likely result in a \"Yes\" resolution:\n\nThe author created a plot outline and character sheets, and used an AI tool to write all or most of the prose.\n\nThe author used an AI tool to write the initial draft and then subsequently revised and edited the prose.\n\nThe author used an AI tool to write the initial draft, and then added a few additional human-written chapters.\n\nScenarios that would likely result in a \"No\" resolution:\n\nThe author wrote a complete draft or drafts and then used an AI tool to 'polish' the draft with line edits.\n\nThe author wrote a complete draft or drafts and then used an AI tool to add a few additional chapters, clearly amounting to under 50% of the length of the book.\n\nThe author wrote themself into a corner and asked ChatGPT for ideas for how to get themselves unstuck.\n\nEdited the description to try to provide more clear and fair resolution criteria\n\n\nUpdate 2026-03-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A specific candidate book has been identified: it was originally self-published, then picked up by a Big Five publisher in the UK. It was pulled before US traditional publication, but the UK publication is considered sufficient to meet the Big Five Publisher criteria for this market.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-08-31T19:40:35.492000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7493.668346945295,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.88205909729004,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Culture","Business"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.95113,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?","top_outcome_probability":0.95113,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JoshuaFosse/will-a-novel-published-by-a-big-fiv","chart_24h":[0.95113,0.95113],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"GSp7JeRkf92Ri42dYcgf","event_id":"GSp7JeRkf92Ri42dYcgf","slug":"will-a-novel-published-by-a-big-fiv","question":"Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?","group_item_title":null,"description":"The traditionally recognized Big Five publishers are:\nPenguin Random House\n\nHachette\n\nHarperCollins\n\nMacmillan\n\nSimon & Schuster\n\nThe novel must be purported to be written by a human, but turn out to have been mostly* written by AI.\n\nWhat counts as \"mostly\" written by AI? As noted in the comments, it is unlikely that we would ever know exactly what percentage of the words in the final draft originated with the human author vs the AI, so there is a very high likelihood of considerable ambiguity. I will use my best judgement, taking into account opinions expressed in the comments, to resolve this fairly.\n\nIf it is revealed that the book is written by AI before publication and the publisher decides not to go through with publishing it, this will resolve to \"No\"\n\nScenarios that would likely result in a \"Yes\" resolution:\n\nThe author created a plot outline and character sheets, and used an AI tool to write all or most of the prose.\n\nThe author used an AI tool to write the initial draft and then subsequently revised and edited the prose.\n\nThe author used an AI tool to write the initial draft, and then added a few additional human-written chapters.\n\nScenarios that would likely result in a \"No\" resolution:\n\nThe author wrote a complete draft or drafts and then used an AI tool to 'polish' the draft with line edits.\n\nThe author wrote a complete draft or drafts and then used an AI tool to add a few additional chapters, clearly amounting to under 50% of the length of the book.\n\nThe author wrote themself into a corner and asked ChatGPT for ideas for how to get themselves unstuck.\n\nEdited the description to try to provide more clear and fair resolution criteria\n\n\nUpdate 2026-03-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A specific candidate book has been identified: it was originally self-published, then picked up by a Big Five publisher in the UK. It was pulled before US traditional publication, but the UK publication is considered sufficient to meet the Big Five Publisher criteria for this market.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.95113,0.04887],"probability":0.95113,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-08-31T19:40:35.492000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7493.668346945295,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.88205909729004,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Culture","Business"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JoshuaFosse/will-a-novel-published-by-a-big-fiv","event_title":"Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?","chart_24h":[0.95113,0.95113]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/GSp7JeRkf92Ri42dYcgf","as_of":"2026-06-10T12:59:13.298984Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?\" — top market at 95% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}