{"source":"manifold","id":"GxE9WJbzPBeGyf0RIKmy","ticker":null,"slug":"before-2030-will-an-ai-complete-the","title":"Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?","description":"(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/3648/)","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F0KoChmxQlB.png?alt=media&token=605f00a2-515d-4ba1-b607-5de30f9c1491","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-04-08T19:19:28.217000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":28392.971265357915,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.93825912475586,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.489158,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?","top_outcome_probability":0.489158,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-08-04T14:07:30.264542Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-04T14:07:30.264542Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/before-2030-will-an-ai-complete-the","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"GxE9WJbzPBeGyf0RIKmy","event_id":"GxE9WJbzPBeGyf0RIKmy","slug":"before-2030-will-an-ai-complete-the","question":"Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?","group_item_title":null,"description":"(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/3648/)","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F0KoChmxQlB.png?alt=media&token=605f00a2-515d-4ba1-b607-5de30f9c1491","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.489158,0.510842],"probability":0.489158,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-04-08T19:19:28.217000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":28392.971265357915,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.93825912475586,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-28T22:16:32.763136Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-04T14:06:37.711938Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/before-2030-will-an-ai-complete-the","event_title":"Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/GxE9WJbzPBeGyf0RIKmy","as_of":"2026-09-09T00:02:38.859735Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?\" — top market at 49% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}