{"source":"manifold","id":"HGiCSvejnnSHMIN5Xkl6","ticker":null,"slug":"will-an-ai-solve-any-important-math","title":"Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?","description":"For the purpose of this question, a mathematical conjecture is considered \"important\" if it appears on the list of unsolved problems maintained by the following sources:\n\nThe Open Problem Garden (http://garden.irmacs.sfu.ca/)\n\nThe Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI)\n\nThe Unsolved Problems in Number Theory book by Richard K. Guy\n\nThese sources collectively provide a broad variety of conjectures across different fields of mathematics that are widely acknowledged as significant.\n\nThis question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, before January 1st, 2030, an AI system fully solves any important mathematical conjecture on the combined list of unsolved problems from the mentioned sources, and the solution:\n\nIs published in a reputable mathematics journal. For the purpose of this question, a reputable mathematics journal is defined as a journal meeting each of these criteria:\n\nPeer Review: The journal must have a well-defined, rigorous, and transparent peer-review process.\n\nIndexing: The journal should be indexed in at least one of the following well-known databases: MathSciNet, Web of Science, or Scopus.\n\nImpact Factor: The journal must have an impact factor greater than or equal to a threshold of 1.0, as reported by either Clarivate Analytics Journal Citation Reports or Scimago Journal Rank (SJR).\n\nIs accompanied by a clear and detailed proof or argument that is deemed valid by the journal's reviewers.\n\nHas not been retracted or shown to be incorrect within six months of publication.\n\nIs explicitly attributed to an AI system in the published article, with a clear description of the AI's role in deriving the solution.\n\nTo determine whether the AI played an essential role in the solution, the following criterion must be met:\n\nThe AI must have autonomously discovered the primary breakthrough, insight, or technique that was instrumental in solving the conjecture. This breakthrough, insight or technique must be easily succinctly and accurately summarizable within a combined total of 5000 words and 2000 mathematical symbols, such that if that summary had been handed to a mathematician working in the same area just a few years prior, then that mathematician would likely have been able to solve the full conjecture within a year without the aid of any AI more advanced than what existed in 2015.\n\nTo measure this, the published article should:\n\nExplicitly identify the AI's discovery of the primary breakthrough, insight, or technique.\n\nExplain how this discovery was pivotal in solving the conjecture.\n\nProvide evidence that this discovery was a major challenge for human mathematicians to discover, such as citing prior unsuccessful attempts or highlighting the novelty of the AI's approach.\n\nTo determine whether the AI's discovery was \"pivotal\", the following aspects should be examined in the published article:\n\nNecessity: The article should explain why the AI's discovery was necessary for the solution, demonstrating that without this discovery, the conjecture would remain unsolved or the proof would be invalid.\n\nNovelty: The article should highlight the novelty of the AI's discovery, showing how it differs from previous approaches and why it was instrumental in resolving the conjecture. This can include a comparison to earlier attempts that were unsuccessful or an explanation of the unique aspects of the AI's approach.\n\nImpact: The article should discuss the impact of the AI's discovery on the solution process, such as how it led to the development of other essential components of the proof or how it provided a new perspective that enabled the resolution of the conjecture.\n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if no AI system fully solves any important mathematical conjecture on the combined list of unsolved problems from the mentioned sources according to the above criteria before January 1st, 2030.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F_RvMFbRtPz.png?alt=media&token=b695c1de-e228-45fc-b32d-a3572b358eeb","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-03-16T05:59:08.907000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":47716.90713640414,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":43.568260192871094,"liquidity":2445.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.948399,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.948399,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-an-ai-solve-any-important-math","chart_24h":[0.948399,0.948399],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"HGiCSvejnnSHMIN5Xkl6","event_id":"HGiCSvejnnSHMIN5Xkl6","slug":"will-an-ai-solve-any-important-math","question":"Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"For the purpose of this question, a mathematical conjecture is considered \"important\" if it appears on the list of unsolved problems maintained by the following sources:\n\nThe Open Problem Garden (http://garden.irmacs.sfu.ca/)\n\nThe Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI)\n\nThe Unsolved Problems in Number Theory book by Richard K. Guy\n\nThese sources collectively provide a broad variety of conjectures across different fields of mathematics that are widely acknowledged as significant.\n\nThis question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, before January 1st, 2030, an AI system fully solves any important mathematical conjecture on the combined list of unsolved problems from the mentioned sources, and the solution:\n\nIs published in a reputable mathematics journal. For the purpose of this question, a reputable mathematics journal is defined as a journal meeting each of these criteria:\n\nPeer Review: The journal must have a well-defined, rigorous, and transparent peer-review process.\n\nIndexing: The journal should be indexed in at least one of the following well-known databases: MathSciNet, Web of Science, or Scopus.\n\nImpact Factor: The journal must have an impact factor greater than or equal to a threshold of 1.0, as reported by either Clarivate Analytics Journal Citation Reports or Scimago Journal Rank (SJR).\n\nIs accompanied by a clear and detailed proof or argument that is deemed valid by the journal's reviewers.\n\nHas not been retracted or shown to be incorrect within six months of publication.\n\nIs explicitly attributed to an AI system in the published article, with a clear description of the AI's role in deriving the solution.\n\nTo determine whether the AI played an essential role in the solution, the following criterion must be met:\n\nThe AI must have autonomously discovered the primary breakthrough, insight, or technique that was instrumental in solving the conjecture. This breakthrough, insight or technique must be easily succinctly and accurately summarizable within a combined total of 5000 words and 2000 mathematical symbols, such that if that summary had been handed to a mathematician working in the same area just a few years prior, then that mathematician would likely have been able to solve the full conjecture within a year without the aid of any AI more advanced than what existed in 2015.\n\nTo measure this, the published article should:\n\nExplicitly identify the AI's discovery of the primary breakthrough, insight, or technique.\n\nExplain how this discovery was pivotal in solving the conjecture.\n\nProvide evidence that this discovery was a major challenge for human mathematicians to discover, such as citing prior unsuccessful attempts or highlighting the novelty of the AI's approach.\n\nTo determine whether the AI's discovery was \"pivotal\", the following aspects should be examined in the published article:\n\nNecessity: The article should explain why the AI's discovery was necessary for the solution, demonstrating that without this discovery, the conjecture would remain unsolved or the proof would be invalid.\n\nNovelty: The article should highlight the novelty of the AI's discovery, showing how it differs from previous approaches and why it was instrumental in resolving the conjecture. This can include a comparison to earlier attempts that were unsuccessful or an explanation of the unique aspects of the AI's approach.\n\nImpact: The article should discuss the impact of the AI's discovery on the solution process, such as how it led to the development of other essential components of the proof or how it provided a new perspective that enabled the resolution of the conjecture.\n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if no AI system fully solves any important mathematical conjecture on the combined list of unsolved problems from the mentioned sources according to the above criteria before January 1st, 2030.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F_RvMFbRtPz.png?alt=media&token=b695c1de-e228-45fc-b32d-a3572b358eeb","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.948399,0.051601],"probability":0.948399,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-03-16T05:59:08.907000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":47716.90713640414,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":43.568260192871094,"liquidity":2445.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T19:15:38.382573Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-01T12:29:15.567719Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-an-ai-solve-any-important-math","event_title":"Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?","chart_24h":[0.948399,0.948399]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/HGiCSvejnnSHMIN5Xkl6","as_of":"2026-06-10T10:37:49.842167Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?\" — top market at 95% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}