{"source":"manifold","id":"HHMBpzWwI67BHLS82G1P","ticker":null,"slug":"will-russia-invade-any-nato-country-e02c9aeb4b88","title":"Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?","description":"Will Russia invade any NATO member country before 31 December 2026?\n\n\t•\tThis question asks participants to predict whether there will be any military action by Russia that constitutes an invasion of a NATO member country’s sovereign territory before the end of 31 December 2026.\n\n\t•\tFor the purposes of this market, an “invasion” is defined as the unauthorized entry of Russian military forces into the sovereign territory of a NATO member country that is publicly acknowledged by NATO as an act of aggression.\n\n\t•\tVerification of an invasion can be based on official statements from NATO, the government of the member country involved, or the Russian government.\n\n\t•\tIncidents that are ambiguous or not officially recognized as an invasion by NATO or the member country’s government will not count towards the resolution of this market.\n\n\t•\tThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any such invasion occurs before the specified date, and “No” otherwise.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/FedorShabashev%2F45003eb2c755.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-05T11:43:55.182000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9515.757553494466,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.078737258911133,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":["world-default","ukrainerussia-war","russia"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.114849,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.114849,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-09-05T04:26:46.066147Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-05T04:26:46.066147Z","added_at":"2026-09-01T17:31:54.071958Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/FedorShabashev/will-russia-invade-any-nato-country-e02c9aeb4b88","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"HHMBpzWwI67BHLS82G1P","event_id":"HHMBpzWwI67BHLS82G1P","slug":"will-russia-invade-any-nato-country-e02c9aeb4b88","question":"Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Will Russia invade any NATO member country before 31 December 2026?\n\n\t•\tThis question asks participants to predict whether there will be any military action by Russia that constitutes an invasion of a NATO member country’s sovereign territory before the end of 31 December 2026.\n\n\t•\tFor the purposes of this market, an “invasion” is defined as the unauthorized entry of Russian military forces into the sovereign territory of a NATO member country that is publicly acknowledged by NATO as an act of aggression.\n\n\t•\tVerification of an invasion can be based on official statements from NATO, the government of the member country involved, or the Russian government.\n\n\t•\tIncidents that are ambiguous or not officially recognized as an invasion by NATO or the member country’s government will not count towards the resolution of this market.\n\n\t•\tThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any such invasion occurs before the specified date, and “No” otherwise.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/FedorShabashev%2F45003eb2c755.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.114849,0.885151],"probability":0.114849,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-05T11:43:55.182000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9515.757553494466,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.078737258911133,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-05T04:26:08.151082Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-05T04:26:08.151082Z","added_at":"2026-09-01T17:31:54.071958Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/FedorShabashev/will-russia-invade-any-nato-country-e02c9aeb4b88","event_title":"Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/HHMBpzWwI67BHLS82G1P","as_of":"2026-09-08T23:58:16.242748Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?\" — top market at 11% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}