{"source":"manifold","id":"HrMP25RvBmOw3FfGVOup","ticker":null,"slug":"openai-will-be-nationalized-or-have","title":"OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030","description":"Fleshing out details now. Overall goal:\n\nTo YES if things like this happen:\n\nOpenAI is significantly owned or controlled by the US government\n\nUS Agents are present at most important meetings or determine direction of the company, or are controlling or seriously influencing the board \n\nOpenAI is legally required to follow the directions of US government when it comes to producing\n\nOpenAI has been forced to sell or merge or share ownership of the company with the US Government, or has been required to take a large investment from the US Government, for example, by using a huge datacenter built by the US.\n\nopenAI is subsumed into another private entity which is then nationalized \n\nTo NO if things like this happen:\n\nOpenAI still independently determines its own direction, resources etc. Influence from investors, owners, microsoft etc is fine.\n\nopenAI doesn't exist at all anymore or is very damaged such as lost 80% of staff or is broken down into small units etc. this needs refinement.\n\nDifficult situations\n\nopenAI is acquired and then part of it is semi controlled\n\nShadow entities and hints \n\nopenAI starts doing really major work for usgov but no power/control information is really formally confirmed, but there are lots of rumors \n\nIrrelevant things\n\nNew names\n\nPlan: I'll work on terms over the weekend at manifest and lock them in (still not immutable, but more than now) Tuesday June 11\n\nThe idea is based on the Dwarkesh interview with Leopold Aschenbrennrr, which has lots of other claims we should have on manifold, too.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Ernie/ybzekkit9x.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-06-05T15:33:59.719000Z","end_date":"2030-07-01T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":22680.133675692156,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":37.75857925415039,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business","Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.337049,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030","top_outcome_probability":0.337049,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Ernie/openai-will-be-nationalized-or-have","chart_24h":[0.337049,0.337049],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"HrMP25RvBmOw3FfGVOup","event_id":"HrMP25RvBmOw3FfGVOup","slug":"openai-will-be-nationalized-or-have","question":"OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030","group_item_title":null,"description":"Fleshing out details now. Overall goal:\n\nTo YES if things like this happen:\n\nOpenAI is significantly owned or controlled by the US government\n\nUS Agents are present at most important meetings or determine direction of the company, or are controlling or seriously influencing the board \n\nOpenAI is legally required to follow the directions of US government when it comes to producing\n\nOpenAI has been forced to sell or merge or share ownership of the company with the US Government, or has been required to take a large investment from the US Government, for example, by using a huge datacenter built by the US.\n\nopenAI is subsumed into another private entity which is then nationalized \n\nTo NO if things like this happen:\n\nOpenAI still independently determines its own direction, resources etc. Influence from investors, owners, microsoft etc is fine.\n\nopenAI doesn't exist at all anymore or is very damaged such as lost 80% of staff or is broken down into small units etc. this needs refinement.\n\nDifficult situations\n\nopenAI is acquired and then part of it is semi controlled\n\nShadow entities and hints \n\nopenAI starts doing really major work for usgov but no power/control information is really formally confirmed, but there are lots of rumors \n\nIrrelevant things\n\nNew names\n\nPlan: I'll work on terms over the weekend at manifest and lock them in (still not immutable, but more than now) Tuesday June 11\n\nThe idea is based on the Dwarkesh interview with Leopold Aschenbrennrr, which has lots of other claims we should have on manifold, too.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Ernie/ybzekkit9x.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.337049,0.662951],"probability":0.337049,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-06-05T15:33:59.719000Z","end_date":"2030-07-01T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":22680.133675692156,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":37.75857925415039,"liquidity":10000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Ernie/openai-will-be-nationalized-or-have","event_title":"OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030","chart_24h":[0.337049,0.337049]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/HrMP25RvBmOw3FfGVOup","as_of":"2026-06-10T17:45:07.148272Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030\" — top market at 34% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}