{"source":"manifold","id":"HtsxyBopv0MSywM0f0Yp","ticker":null,"slug":"will-humanity-go-extinct-before-203","title":"Will humanity go extinct before 2030?","description":"If at least one human is alive on Jan 1, 2030, then this question resolves to NO.\n\nFor this question, we'll define humans the same as this Metaculus question:\n\nas biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count). Any living humans living anywhere in the observable universe (or multiverse) (who are known to the entities operating Metaculus) on that date will be sufficient to resolve the question negatively.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-10T20:48:39.670000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":45852.034240675195,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":43.24632263183594,"liquidity":1040.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.031492,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will humanity go extinct before 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.031492,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/jack/will-humanity-go-extinct-before-203","chart_24h":[0.031492,0.031492],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"HtsxyBopv0MSywM0f0Yp","event_id":"HtsxyBopv0MSywM0f0Yp","slug":"will-humanity-go-extinct-before-203","question":"Will humanity go extinct before 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"If at least one human is alive on Jan 1, 2030, then this question resolves to NO.\n\nFor this question, we'll define humans the same as this Metaculus question:\n\nas biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count). Any living humans living anywhere in the observable universe (or multiverse) (who are known to the entities operating Metaculus) on that date will be sufficient to resolve the question negatively.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.031492,0.968508],"probability":0.031492,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-10T20:48:39.670000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":45852.034240675195,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":43.24632263183594,"liquidity":1040.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T23:15:27.453992Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-19T12:33:25.822347Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/jack/will-humanity-go-extinct-before-203","event_title":"Will humanity go extinct before 2030?","chart_24h":[0.031492,0.031492]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/HtsxyBopv0MSywM0f0Yp","as_of":"2026-06-10T13:12:42.329957Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will humanity go extinct before 2030?\" — top market at 3% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}