{"source":"manifold","id":"HvOi4AMe0I90kZauKfO2","ticker":null,"slug":"will-george-rr-martin-die-before-de","title":"Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?","description":"Final entry in main book series - does not include short stories, Simarillion style additional content, etc. \n\nDoes not count if partially completed and finished by another author\n\nUpdate 2025-01-01 (PST): - Resolution Deadline Extended: The deadline for resolving the market has been extended by 12 months. (AI summary of creator comment)","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-04-03T07:06:40.335000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T12:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6432.041724249696,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.835369110107422,"liquidity":1312.5,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Culture"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.876074,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?","top_outcome_probability":0.876074,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-17.387838156716846,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:14.240708Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JackMcPherson/will-george-rr-martin-die-before-de","chart_24h":[0.876074,0.876074,0.876074],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"HvOi4AMe0I90kZauKfO2","event_id":"HvOi4AMe0I90kZauKfO2","slug":"will-george-rr-martin-die-before-de","question":"Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Final entry in main book series - does not include short stories, Simarillion style additional content, etc. \n\nDoes not count if partially completed and finished by another author\n\nUpdate 2025-01-01 (PST): - Resolution Deadline Extended: The deadline for resolving the market has been extended by 12 months. (AI summary of creator comment)","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.876074,0.123926],"probability":0.876074,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-04-03T07:06:40.335000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T12:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6432.041724249696,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-17.387838156716846,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.835369110107422,"liquidity":1312.5,"categories":["Culture"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T10:48:27.946397Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T10:47:25.873869Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JackMcPherson/will-george-rr-martin-die-before-de","event_title":"Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?","chart_24h":[0.876074,0.876074,0.876074]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/HvOi4AMe0I90kZauKfO2","as_of":"2026-07-25T22:58:58.531614Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?\" — top market at 88% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}