{"source":"manifold","id":"I6gU82zcus","ticker":null,"slug":"tesla-serves-more-fully-autonomous","title":"Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?","description":"NOTE: This market includes any autonomous ride in a Tesla, not just the robotaxi service!\n\nWaymo claims 700k fully autonomous rides in 2023, which was more than ~0 Tesla rides that were fully autonomous in 2023.\n\nTo define fully autonomous, I'll use the following definition:\n\nNo human operates any direct controls inside the vehicle like the steering wheel or pedals\n\nNo human in the car actively monitors the driving being ready to intervene\n\nMust be of a non-trivial distance (e.g. crossing the parking lot does not count)\n\nCan't be in a fixed track, like the Las Vegas Loop\n\nSee also: @/JamesGrugett/will-tesla-serve-more-fully-autonom \n\nI will delay resolution until both companies report results or until the result is extremely clear, or until it's January 2028, where I'll make an informed guess.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-11T05:06:48.376000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1029830.0585139598,"volume_24hr":4485.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":72.09061431884766,"normalized_volume":71.01380920410156,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Business","Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.060447,"spread":null,"top_outcome":null,"top_outcome_probability":null,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-08-25T06:52:14.395442Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-25T06:52:14.395442Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/tesla-serves-more-fully-autonomous","chart_24h":null,"markets":[],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/I6gU82zcus","as_of":"2026-08-25T07:19:09.791621Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?\"","source_url":null}}