{"source":"manifold","id":"I6gU82zcus","ticker":null,"slug":"tesla-serves-more-fully-autonomous","title":"Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?","description":"NOTE: This market includes any autonomous ride in a Tesla, not just the robotaxi service!\n\nWaymo claims 700k fully autonomous rides in 2023, which was more than ~0 Tesla rides that were fully autonomous in 2023.\n\nTo define fully autonomous, I'll use the following definition:\n\nNo human operates any direct controls inside the vehicle like the steering wheel or pedals\n\nNo human in the car actively monitors the driving being ready to intervene\n\nMust be of a non-trivial distance (e.g. crossing the parking lot does not count)\n\nCan't be in a fixed track, like the Las Vegas Loop\n\nSee also: @/JamesGrugett/will-tesla-serve-more-fully-autonom \n\nI will delay resolution until both companies report results or until the result is extremely clear, or until it's January 2028, where I'll make an informed guess.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-11T05:06:48.376000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":873417.4538220887,"volume_24hr":5590.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":86.82666778564453,"normalized_volume":70.20946502685547,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Business","Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.09,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.09,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.008232000000000003,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":5490.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-10T17:27:26.076325Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-10T17:27:26.076325Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/tesla-serves-more-fully-autonomous","chart_24h":[0.098232,0.098232,0.09794,0.097361,0.095934,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"I6gU82zcus","event_id":"I6gU82zcus","slug":"tesla-serves-more-fully-autonomous","question":"Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"NOTE: This market includes any autonomous ride in a Tesla, not just the robotaxi service!\n\nWaymo claims 700k fully autonomous rides in 2023, which was more than ~0 Tesla rides that were fully autonomous in 2023.\n\nTo define fully autonomous, I'll use the following definition:\n\nNo human operates any direct controls inside the vehicle like the steering wheel or pedals\n\nNo human in the car actively monitors the driving being ready to intervene\n\nMust be of a non-trivial distance (e.g. crossing the parking lot does not count)\n\nCan't be in a fixed track, like the Las Vegas Loop\n\nSee also: @/JamesGrugett/will-tesla-serve-more-fully-autonom \n\nI will delay resolution until both companies report results or until the result is extremely clear, or until it's January 2028, where I'll make an informed guess.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.09,0.91],"probability":0.09,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-11T05:06:48.376000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":873417.4538220887,"volume_24hr":5590.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.008232000000000003,"volume_24h_change":5490.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":86.82666778564453,"normalized_volume":70.20946502685547,"liquidity":10000.0,"categories":["Business","Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-10T19:04:33.768493Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-10T17:25:07.833530Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/tesla-serves-more-fully-autonomous","event_title":"Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.098232,0.098232,0.09794,0.097361,0.095934,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/I6gU82zcus","as_of":"2026-07-10T19:26:03.950992Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?\" — top market at 9% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}