{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/I6gU82zcus","as_of":"2026-10-17T04:15:00.516151Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?\" — 5% as of 2026-10-17 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/I6gU82zcus","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/tesla-serves-more-fully-autonomous"},"source":"manifold","id":"I6gU82zcus","ticker":null,"slug":"tesla-serves-more-fully-autonomous","title":"Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?","description":"NOTE: This market includes any autonomous ride in a Tesla, not just the robotaxi service!\n\nWaymo claims 700k fully autonomous rides in 2023, which was more than ~0 Tesla rides that were fully autonomous in 2023.\n\nTo define fully autonomous, I'll use the following definition:\n\nNo human operates any direct controls inside the vehicle like the steering wheel or pedals\n\nNo human in the car actively monitors the driving being ready to intervene\n\nMust be of a non-trivial distance (e.g. crossing the parking lot does not count)\n\nCan't be in a fixed track, like the Las Vegas Loop\n\nSee also: @/JamesGrugett/will-tesla-serve-more-fully-autonom \n\nI will delay resolution until both companies report results or until the result is extremely clear, or until it's January 2028, where I'll make an informed guess.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-11T05:06:48.376000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1063473.8623224872,"volume_24hr":3613.3001607180763,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":69.98955535888672,"normalized_volume":70.85224914550781,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Business","Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.047424,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.047424,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.006530000000000001,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2963.3001607180763,"updated_at":"2026-10-17T01:26:19.203823Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-17T01:26:19.203823Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/tesla-serves-more-fully-autonomous","chart_24h":[0.040894,0.040894,0.047424],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"I6gU82zcus","event_id":"I6gU82zcus","slug":"tesla-serves-more-fully-autonomous","question":"Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"NOTE: This market includes any autonomous ride in a Tesla, not just the robotaxi service!\n\nWaymo claims 700k fully autonomous rides in 2023, which was more than ~0 Tesla rides that were fully autonomous in 2023.\n\nTo define fully autonomous, I'll use the following definition:\n\nNo human operates any direct controls inside the vehicle like the steering wheel or pedals\n\nNo human in the car actively monitors the driving being ready to intervene\n\nMust be of a non-trivial distance (e.g. crossing the parking lot does not count)\n\nCan't be in a fixed track, like the Las Vegas Loop\n\nSee also: @/JamesGrugett/will-tesla-serve-more-fully-autonom \n\nI will delay resolution until both companies report results or until the result is extremely clear, or until it's January 2028, where I'll make an informed guess.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.047424,0.952576],"probability":0.047424,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-11T05:06:48.376000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":1063473.8623224872,"volume_24hr":3613.3001607180763,"prob_24h_change":0.006530000000000001,"volume_24h_change":2963.3001607180763,"normalized_vol_24hr":70.00991821289062,"normalized_volume":70.85224914550781,"liquidity":10000.0,"categories":["Business","Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-17T01:24:06.727478Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-17T01:24:06.727478Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/tesla-serves-more-fully-autonomous","event_title":"Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.040894,0.040894,0.047424]}]}