{"source":"manifold","id":"I9Wbcatmjk0W7SAxm5Qd","ticker":null,"slug":"will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio","title":"Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?","description":"Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created before we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).\n\nNumeric markets:\n\n@/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors \n\nAGI questions:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 \n\nFusion questions:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d18e9fd38cd1 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a380452919f1 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-93a1ac777df5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-f5a1947c172a \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-99b4d79ded14 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-0f87d48233f5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-02fec46476dd \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a34a5044ccca \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-607391b6e7ff \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-9594f28b5777 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-c3873b782b65 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-8213a4d4f7e6 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-ca980dd1dca2 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-719c22dafd13 \n\nOther reference points for AGI:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio (this question)\n\nOther reference points for fusion reactors:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-585b179f8ac3 \n\nEngineering breakeven is defined here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor#Engineering_breakeven\n\nThe fusion reactor must have been built by human civilization or one of its descendants in order to qualify in the context of this question.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FHe2JLzQfiQ.png?alt=media&token=59367ae0-28a0-4313-828a-54994dbd12f5","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-26T11:48:53.121000Z","end_date":"2100-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4627.444778287835,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":26.739578247070312,"liquidity":1240.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.583032,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?","top_outcome_probability":0.583032,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-11T00:44:35.176153Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T00:44:35.176153Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio","chart_24h":[0.583032,0.583032,0.583032,0.583032,0.583032,0.583032,0.583032,0.583032,0.583032,0.583032,0.583032,0.583032,0.583032],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"I9Wbcatmjk0W7SAxm5Qd","event_id":"I9Wbcatmjk0W7SAxm5Qd","slug":"will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio","question":"Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created before we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).\n\nNumeric markets:\n\n@/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors \n\nAGI questions:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 \n\nFusion questions:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d18e9fd38cd1 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a380452919f1 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-93a1ac777df5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-f5a1947c172a \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-99b4d79ded14 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-0f87d48233f5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-02fec46476dd \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a34a5044ccca \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-607391b6e7ff \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-9594f28b5777 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-c3873b782b65 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-8213a4d4f7e6 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-ca980dd1dca2 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-719c22dafd13 \n\nOther reference points for AGI:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio (this question)\n\nOther reference points for fusion reactors:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-585b179f8ac3 \n\nEngineering breakeven is defined here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor#Engineering_breakeven\n\nThe fusion reactor must have been built by human civilization or one of its descendants in order to qualify in the context of this question.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FHe2JLzQfiQ.png?alt=media&token=59367ae0-28a0-4313-828a-54994dbd12f5","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.583032,0.416968],"probability":0.583032,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-26T11:48:53.121000Z","end_date":"2100-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4627.444778287835,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":26.739578247070312,"liquidity":1240.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T00:42:51.650277Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T00:42:51.650277Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio","event_title":"Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?","chart_24h":[0.583032,0.583032,0.583032,0.583032,0.583032,0.583032,0.583032,0.583032,0.583032,0.583032,0.583032,0.583032,0.583032]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/I9Wbcatmjk0W7SAxm5Qd","as_of":"2026-06-11T02:48:20.144405Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?\" — top market at 58% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}