{"source":"manifold","id":"IGUuQ9SxMD85toOGGv0w","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-year-of-the-selfdriving-ca","title":"Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop","description":"For decades, people have talked about the \"year of the Linux desktop\", with non-specific criteria but generally a subjective impression that Linux is ready for mainstream use. For years, people have talked about self-driving cars being right around the corner.\n\nThis market resolves YES if reliable self-driving cars are generally available (e.g. summonable for a ride by anyone in a large-scale market such as a country or several entire states of a country, not a 1-2 city trial) before Linux reaches 10% desktop market share (by some reasonably objective metric).\n\nThis market resolves NO if Linux reaches 10% desktop computer market share before reliable self-driving cars are generally available.\n\nI expect to extend this market's close date if neither condition occurs.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/josh%2Fa28c1369e3ce.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-12-26T19:45:54.581000Z","end_date":"2027-01-02T07:54:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4270.190381853026,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":26.233936309814453,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.929512,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop","top_outcome_probability":0.929512,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/josh/will-the-year-of-the-selfdriving-ca","chart_24h":[0.929512,0.929512],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"IGUuQ9SxMD85toOGGv0w","event_id":"IGUuQ9SxMD85toOGGv0w","slug":"will-the-year-of-the-selfdriving-ca","question":"Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop","group_item_title":null,"description":"For decades, people have talked about the \"year of the Linux desktop\", with non-specific criteria but generally a subjective impression that Linux is ready for mainstream use. For years, people have talked about self-driving cars being right around the corner.\n\nThis market resolves YES if reliable self-driving cars are generally available (e.g. summonable for a ride by anyone in a large-scale market such as a country or several entire states of a country, not a 1-2 city trial) before Linux reaches 10% desktop market share (by some reasonably objective metric).\n\nThis market resolves NO if Linux reaches 10% desktop computer market share before reliable self-driving cars are generally available.\n\nI expect to extend this market's close date if neither condition occurs.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/josh%2Fa28c1369e3ce.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.929512,0.070488],"probability":0.929512,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-12-26T19:45:54.581000Z","end_date":"2027-01-02T07:54:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4270.190381853026,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":26.233936309814453,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:36:25.491276Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-15T04:02:10.948159Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/josh/will-the-year-of-the-selfdriving-ca","event_title":"Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop","chart_24h":[0.929512,0.929512]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/IGUuQ9SxMD85toOGGv0w","as_of":"2026-06-10T15:31:19.884956Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop\" — top market at 93% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}