{"source":"manifold","id":"ISUuclN9C0","ticker":null,"slug":"fable-reenabled-for-americans-by-ju","title":"Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by June 30?","description":"This market resolves YES if, before June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT, Anthropic officially restores access to Claude Fable 5 — or a direct successor/replacement branded as Fable — for users in the United States.\n\nFor YES, access must be meaningfully usable by American users through at least one official Anthropic channel, including:\n\nClaude web/app\n\nAnthropic API\n\nClaude Code or another official Anthropic developer product\n\nEnterprise/Team/Max/Pro access, if available to ordinary U.S.-based customers or U.S. persons under clearly stated criteria\n\nThis market resolves NO if Fable is not officially reenabled for Americans by the deadline.\n\nBackground: Anthropic stated on June 12, 2026 that a U.S. government directive required it to suspend access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for foreign nationals, and that Anthropic disabled the models for all customers while working to restore access.\n\nWhat counts as “Americans”:\nFor this market, “Americans” means users Anthropic identifies as eligible U.S. users, such as U.S.-based users, U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or U.S. persons, depending on the access rule Anthropic publishes.\n\nWhat does not count:\n\nRumors, leaks, Discord comments, screenshots, or isolated anecdotes without official confirmation.\n\nAccess only for Anthropic employees, internal testers, government users, or a closed non-commercial safety group.\n\nAccess through unofficial proxies, VPN workarounds, jailbreaks, mirrors, or third-party resellers.\n\nReenabling of Mythos only, unless Fable itself or a direct Fable successor is also available.\n\nA vague announcement that access is “coming soon” without actual availability before the deadline.\n\nResolution source hierarchy:\n\nOfficial Anthropic announcement, status page, docs, API docs, or product UI.\n\nOfficial government statement if it directly confirms access restoration.\n\nReputable reporting may be used only if official sources are unavailable but the access restoration is clearly documented.\n\nEdge cases:\n\nIf Fable is restored only for API customers in the U.S., resolves YES.\n\nIf Fable is restored only for paid U.S. users, resolves YES.\n\nIf Fable is restored only for a narrow invite-only beta, resolves NO, unless the beta is broadly available to U.S. customers under public eligibility criteria.\n\nIf access is restored after June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT, resolves NO.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-16T08:04:37.737000Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7541.886484783203,"volume_24hr":3114.7926059498277,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":64.43907928466797,"normalized_volume":29.916786193847656,"liquidity":2000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.725398,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by June 30?","top_outcome_probability":0.725398,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.03930900000000004,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-317.26974073144083,"updated_at":"2026-06-19T04:58:28.921309Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-19T04:58:28.921309Z","added_at":"2026-06-18T23:48:26.103021Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/fable-reenabled-for-americans-by-ju","chart_24h":[0.686089,0.686089,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.725398,0.725398],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"ISUuclN9C0","event_id":"ISUuclN9C0","slug":"fable-reenabled-for-americans-by-ju","question":"Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by June 30?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market resolves YES if, before June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT, Anthropic officially restores access to Claude Fable 5 — or a direct successor/replacement branded as Fable — for users in the United States.\n\nFor YES, access must be meaningfully usable by American users through at least one official Anthropic channel, including:\n\nClaude web/app\n\nAnthropic API\n\nClaude Code or another official Anthropic developer product\n\nEnterprise/Team/Max/Pro access, if available to ordinary U.S.-based customers or U.S. persons under clearly stated criteria\n\nThis market resolves NO if Fable is not officially reenabled for Americans by the deadline.\n\nBackground: Anthropic stated on June 12, 2026 that a U.S. government directive required it to suspend access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for foreign nationals, and that Anthropic disabled the models for all customers while working to restore access.\n\nWhat counts as “Americans”:\nFor this market, “Americans” means users Anthropic identifies as eligible U.S. users, such as U.S.-based users, U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or U.S. persons, depending on the access rule Anthropic publishes.\n\nWhat does not count:\n\nRumors, leaks, Discord comments, screenshots, or isolated anecdotes without official confirmation.\n\nAccess only for Anthropic employees, internal testers, government users, or a closed non-commercial safety group.\n\nAccess through unofficial proxies, VPN workarounds, jailbreaks, mirrors, or third-party resellers.\n\nReenabling of Mythos only, unless Fable itself or a direct Fable successor is also available.\n\nA vague announcement that access is “coming soon” without actual availability before the deadline.\n\nResolution source hierarchy:\n\nOfficial Anthropic announcement, status page, docs, API docs, or product UI.\n\nOfficial government statement if it directly confirms access restoration.\n\nReputable reporting may be used only if official sources are unavailable but the access restoration is clearly documented.\n\nEdge cases:\n\nIf Fable is restored only for API customers in the U.S., resolves YES.\n\nIf Fable is restored only for paid U.S. users, resolves YES.\n\nIf Fable is restored only for a narrow invite-only beta, resolves NO, unless the beta is broadly available to U.S. customers under public eligibility criteria.\n\nIf access is restored after June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT, resolves NO.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.725398,0.274602],"probability":0.725398,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-16T08:04:37.737000Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7541.886484783203,"volume_24hr":3114.7926059498277,"prob_24h_change":0.03930900000000004,"volume_24h_change":-317.26974073144083,"normalized_vol_24hr":64.43907928466797,"normalized_volume":29.916786193847656,"liquidity":2000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-19T04:58:36.510300Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-19T04:57:50.383927Z","added_at":"2026-06-18T23:48:26.103021Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/fable-reenabled-for-americans-by-ju","event_title":"Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by June 30?","chart_24h":[0.686089,0.686089,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.725398,0.725398]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/ISUuclN9C0","as_of":"2026-06-19T05:05:19.898044Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by June 30?\" — top market at 73% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}