{"source":"manifold","id":"IUgtSpszNS","ticker":null,"slug":"will-trump-declare-a-national-emerg-qphcUqSlZZ","title":"Will Trump declare a national emergency before the midterms?","description":"Shadow strategist Bannon seems to believe so. \n\nResolution criteria\n\nThis market resolves to YES if Donald Trump, in his capacity as President of the United States, officially declares a new national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.) on or before November 3, 2026 (11:59 PM EST).\n\nSource of Truth: The declaration must be officially published as a Presidential Proclamation or Executive Order on the Federal Register (federalregister.gov) or the official White House website (whitehouse.gov).\n\nExclusions: This market requires a newly declared national emergency. The continuation, extension, or modification of existing national emergencies (such as the January 2025 emergency regarding energy and critical minerals) will not qualify.\n\nIf no qualifying new national emergency is officially declared by the deadline, the market resolves to NO.\n\nBackground\n\nIn July and August 2026, key allies of Donald Trump—including former White House strategist Steve Bannon and media host Wayne Allyn Root—publicly urged the President to declare a national security emergency to assert federal control over the upcoming 2026 midterm elections. Proponents of this move suggest it could be used to implement voting restrictions, such as strict photo ID and citizenship requirements, or station ICE agents at polling places.\n\nLegal scholars and critics have heavily disputed the legality of such an action, noting that the U.S. Constitution explicitly grants individual states and Congress—not the executive branch—the authority to administer federal elections. Trump himself has publicly declined to rule out the idea, stating in an August 2026 interview that \"stranger things have happened\" when asked about declaring an election-related emergency.\n\nUpdate 2026-08-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): To resolve to YES, any newly declared national emergency must have the effect of disrupting the midterms.\n\nRoutine declarations (such as foreign sanctions) will not qualify unless they disrupt the midterms.\n\nThe mechanism of disruption matters less than the declaration itself.\n\nUpdate 2026-08-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * The market's subtext (disrupting or asserting control over the midterms) governs the resolution criteria.\n\nRoutine trade or foreign sanctions (such as Cuba- or Venezuela-style sanctions) will not qualify for a YES resolution.\n\nUpdate 2026-08-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A qualifying declaration must have the practical effect of disrupting or asserting federal authority over the midterms, regardless of its stated basis (such as using foreign interference as a pretext).\n\nRoutine foreign sanctions or trade declarations do not qualify.\n\nFinal resolution is subject to creator judgment.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-19T15:17:18.430000Z","end_date":"2026-11-02T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10690.28035851467,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.705341339111328,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.22,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Trump declare a national emergency before the midterms?","top_outcome_probability":0.22,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-373.8078863027313,"updated_at":"2026-10-06T00:17:27.265185Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T00:17:27.265185Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T16:41:58.527435Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/xixi/will-trump-declare-a-national-emerg-qphcUqSlZZ","chart_24h":[0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"IUgtSpszNS","event_id":"IUgtSpszNS","slug":"will-trump-declare-a-national-emerg-qphcUqSlZZ","question":"Will Trump declare a national emergency before the midterms?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Shadow strategist Bannon seems to believe so. \n\nResolution criteria\n\nThis market resolves to YES if Donald Trump, in his capacity as President of the United States, officially declares a new national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.) on or before November 3, 2026 (11:59 PM EST).\n\nSource of Truth: The declaration must be officially published as a Presidential Proclamation or Executive Order on the Federal Register (federalregister.gov) or the official White House website (whitehouse.gov).\n\nExclusions: This market requires a newly declared national emergency. The continuation, extension, or modification of existing national emergencies (such as the January 2025 emergency regarding energy and critical minerals) will not qualify.\n\nIf no qualifying new national emergency is officially declared by the deadline, the market resolves to NO.\n\nBackground\n\nIn July and August 2026, key allies of Donald Trump—including former White House strategist Steve Bannon and media host Wayne Allyn Root—publicly urged the President to declare a national security emergency to assert federal control over the upcoming 2026 midterm elections. Proponents of this move suggest it could be used to implement voting restrictions, such as strict photo ID and citizenship requirements, or station ICE agents at polling places.\n\nLegal scholars and critics have heavily disputed the legality of such an action, noting that the U.S. Constitution explicitly grants individual states and Congress—not the executive branch—the authority to administer federal elections. Trump himself has publicly declined to rule out the idea, stating in an August 2026 interview that \"stranger things have happened\" when asked about declaring an election-related emergency.\n\nUpdate 2026-08-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): To resolve to YES, any newly declared national emergency must have the effect of disrupting the midterms.\n\nRoutine declarations (such as foreign sanctions) will not qualify unless they disrupt the midterms.\n\nThe mechanism of disruption matters less than the declaration itself.\n\nUpdate 2026-08-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * The market's subtext (disrupting or asserting control over the midterms) governs the resolution criteria.\n\nRoutine trade or foreign sanctions (such as Cuba- or Venezuela-style sanctions) will not qualify for a YES resolution.\n\nUpdate 2026-08-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A qualifying declaration must have the practical effect of disrupting or asserting federal authority over the midterms, regardless of its stated basis (such as using foreign interference as a pretext).\n\nRoutine foreign sanctions or trade declarations do not qualify.\n\nFinal resolution is subject to creator judgment.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.22,0.78],"probability":0.22,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-19T15:17:18.430000Z","end_date":"2026-11-02T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10690.28035851467,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-373.8078863027313,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.705341339111328,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-06T00:14:45.989608Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T00:14:45.989608Z","added_at":"2026-08-20T16:41:58.527435Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/xixi/will-trump-declare-a-national-emerg-qphcUqSlZZ","event_title":"Will Trump declare a national emergency before the midterms?","chart_24h":[0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/IUgtSpszNS","as_of":"2026-10-06T06:22:02.692251Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Trump declare a national emergency before the midterms?\" — top market at 22% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}