{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/IdSquLE0g9","as_of":"2026-10-24T06:57:06.951529Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"When, where or how will Trump die?\" — 89 markets; highest \"On Earth\" at 99% as of 2026-10-20 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/IdSquLE0g9","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/TheWabiSabi/when-will-trump-die"},"source":"manifold","id":"IdSquLE0g9","ticker":"IdSquLE0g9","slug":"when-will-trump-die","title":"When, where or how will Trump die?","description":"Background Donald Trump was born on June 14, 1946, making him 77 years old. He is currently the oldest major party nominee for president in U.S. history. According to CDC data, the average life expectancy for a 77-year-old American male is approximately 9.4 additional years.\n\nResolution Criteria This market will resolve based on the year of Donald Trump's death as reported by multiple reputable news sources. If Trump dies during a particular year listed in the options, that option will resolve to YES and all others to NO.\n\nThe market will resolve N/A if:\n\nTrump's death cannot be verified by multiple reputable sources\n\nThe exact date of death cannot be determined\n\nThe death occurs under disputed circumstances where the date is unclear\n\nConsiderations\n\nTrump has access to high-quality medical care and resources which may extend life expectancy beyond population averages\n\nHis father, Fred Trump, lived to be 93 years old, suggesting possible genetic factors for longevity\n\nAs a former president, he receives lifetime medical care from military physicians\n\nStress factors from legal proceedings and potential political activities could impact health outcomes\n\nMedical privacy laws may affect the timing and details of death announcements\n\nNote: This market deals with the death of a public figure. Traders should approach the topic with appropriate sensitivity and respect.\n\nUpdate 2026-01-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For location-based resolution (e.g., \"outside\" vs \"inside\"), the market will only resolve if the circumstances are clear. Examples:\n\nClear case: Death from a bombing outside would resolve as \"outside\"\n\nUnclear case: A heart attack where the person is transported to a hospital and declared dead inside would be considered unclear and may resolve N/A\n\nUpdate 2026-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the \"in front of a camera\" option:\n\nA recording camera counts (including CCTV)\n\nHolding a cell phone that is off does not count\n\nVerification does not require the footage to be publicly released\n\nUpdate 2026-04-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the \"with a bullet inside his body\" option: resolves YES if a bullet is found inside his body after autopsy, whether from being shot or from swallowing.\n\nUpdate 2026-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the \"While he is on a GLP-1\" option: if it cannot be confirmed whether Trump was on a GLP-1 at the time of death, the market will resolve N/A.\n\nUpdate 2026-08-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the 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