{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/J7krYjbhuIYXWmLj1ZR9","as_of":"2026-10-24T08:21:39.684544Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?\" — 62% as of 2026-10-19 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/J7krYjbhuIYXWmLj1ZR9","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-a-democrat-win-the-2028-us-pre"},"source":"manifold","id":"J7krYjbhuIYXWmLj1ZR9","ticker":null,"slug":"will-a-democrat-win-the-2028-us-pre","title":"Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?","description":"From https://metaculus.com/questions/11045/democrat-wins-2028-us-presidential-election/\n\nEvery 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of the Electoral College. A candidate must secure the majority of Electoral College votes, following the process outlined in the Twelfth Amendment to the US Constitution.\n\nThe 2028 United States Presidential Election is set to be held on November 7, 2028.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FdfVKu7R89C.png?alt=media&token=fc636583-052a-4155-b88e-87c13b14f262","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-05-04T17:27:11.642000Z","end_date":"2028-11-07T06:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2431.48612650683,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":22.35856819152832,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["metaculus","us-politics"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.619897,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?","top_outcome_probability":0.619897,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-19T20:11:28.082818Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-19T20:11:28.082818Z","added_at":"2026-10-07T09:29:57.086331Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-a-democrat-win-the-2028-us-pre","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"J7krYjbhuIYXWmLj1ZR9","event_id":"J7krYjbhuIYXWmLj1ZR9","slug":"will-a-democrat-win-the-2028-us-pre","question":"Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?","group_item_title":null,"description":"From https://metaculus.com/questions/11045/democrat-wins-2028-us-presidential-election/\n\nEvery 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of the Electoral College. A candidate must secure the majority of Electoral College votes, following the process outlined in the Twelfth Amendment to the US Constitution.\n\nThe 2028 United States Presidential Election is set to be held on November 7, 2028.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FdfVKu7R89C.png?alt=media&token=fc636583-052a-4155-b88e-87c13b14f262","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.619897,0.380103],"probability":0.619897,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-05-04T17:27:11.642000Z","end_date":"2028-11-07T06:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":2431.48612650683,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":22.35856819152832,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-19T20:11:19.602761Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-19T20:11:19.602761Z","added_at":"2026-10-07T09:29:57.086331Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-a-democrat-win-the-2028-us-pre","event_title":"Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?","chart_24h":null}]}